http://flhurricane.com/
7:45AM EDT Update 30 September 2015
Based on a recon report of 971 mb, Joaquin has been upgraded to a category 1 hurricane. The forecast track is very uncertain, and relies on how far west and south the system goes. It is forecast to near the central Bahamas then turn late Friday. Beyond that, anyone along the east coast should be paying attention.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=95971&gonew=1#UNREAD
Re: TS Joaquin Lounge [Re: MikeC]
#96001 - Wed Sep 30 2015 07:24 AM
0z Euro maintains the earlier idea of going into the Central Bahamas briefly then bouncing northeast out to sea. Euro ensembles also shift east, but most still have a us impact. The possibly phantom low being created off the carolina coast seems to be why the operational Euro kicks the system off to the northeast.
6z GFS closes Central Bahamas approach Friday early morning hours. Landfall Cape Hatteras Sunday morning closer to noon as a major hurricane. so a slight shift south from the earlier run.
In short, models still aren’t much help in this setup. It all really depends on how far west/south Joaquin gets. The entire east coast needs to watch, and the mid-Atlantic in particular.
