[Bernard]

What is the margin of error on those poll numbers in your post? If the next debate was limited to people who are not in a situation where their actual support might be negative would be an easy way to determine who is in the debate.

According to the chart, there are 8 people with 5% or more support. Even that is too many, but at least it is less than 10.

[InterceptPoint]

Typical Margin of error numbers for these polls are in the range of 4 to 6 percent or so. But note that averaging 4 or 5 polls as RCP does will lower these Margin of Error figures for the average.

Also note that the polls are in rough agreement with the average of the polls.

And don’t make the mistake of believing that a candidate who polls 1% with an MOE of 5% is actually polling somewhere between -4% and 6%. That is not how MOE is applied and there is no way a candidate can poll less than zero.