Posted on 09/10/2015 3:38:09 AM PDT by jimbo123
Donald Trump has become the first Republican presidential candidate to top 30% support in the race for the Republican nomination, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll, which finds the businessman pulling well away from the rest of the GOP field.
Trump gained 8 points since August to land at 32% support, and has nearly tripled his support since just after he launched his campaign in June. The new poll finds former neurosurgeon Ben Carson rising 10 points to land in second place with 19%. Together, these two non-politicians now hold the support of a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, and separately, both are significantly ahead of all other competitors.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush stands in third place with 9%, down 4 points since August, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz holds fourth place with 7%. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker follow at 5%, with all other candidates at 3% or less, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who notched the only other statistically significant shift in the poll by falling 5 points since August.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
I just don’t have a good feeling about Trump.
Cruz, even Carson or Walker.
But I’m uncomfortable about Trump.
But I am very glad to see JEB’s numbers shrinking to insignificance.
I don’t have any proof, but I keep reading of people’s anecdotes of Democrats they know who they say plan to vote for Trump, ie “Trump Democrats”. That would certainly put him over, would it not?
“I keep seeing that no matter who the Democrats run, they have 200 electoral votes “locked up”.”
Not quite that many. They will still get CA, NY, and IL, which puts at 104 EVs for the large states and 3 more for DC - total 107 EVs. They get CA because of the hippies/gays and racially-polarized Hispanics. They get NY because of their large minority populations, in their cities, they get IL because of Chicago, and DC will never be in play for us.
The other states get more interesting. Trump seems to have read my tag line, which is to get lock-down the white vote first, and then start reaching for other voters. That means he instantly becomes competitive in New England and the Northwest (very high white concentration) and the other Midwest states (with Michigan being the big prize). These states make up the balance of the 200 to 250 EVs that are assumed sure-Democrat victories, and that would be the case for any typical Republican. But Trump, like Reagan in the past, brings them into play.
If Trump holds steady, it will be a blowout, with the Dems lucky to reach 150 EVs.
If he wins-even though I have no expectarions that he will do any of the things for which we social conservatives are so anxious, at least (if he’s sincere), he will put a big monkey wrench in the illegal immigrant works, and that’s a good place to start feom, for social conservatives like Ted Cruz to start gettingthe ball rolling on social issues. If the GOPe gets its main-heck, its only-issue cut out from under them-cheap labor (and by the same token, new rat voters for the rats), maybe they will have no choice but to return to the focus on social issues which they completely disregarded now, blinded by the dollar signs in their eyes thanks to lobbies (CoC) big bucks to them to get cheap (illegal alien) labor. Maybe Trump can at least take that issue away from them, and force them back to dealing with fundamentals, or else they’ll have nothing to do at all. Of course this is all wishful thinking on my part.
Also, maybe he can do away with this awful, terrible, treasonous deal with Iran. At least he doesn’t seem anti-American in the biggest sense, unlike Hussein and too many bought-off or blackmailed rats. This deal is something I can’t believe I see coming from DC, it’s a nightmare, like a bunch of people who truly hate America and planned all alomg to sell her out finally saw rheir path to do it. Whatever else he may do or not do, I just can’t see Trump ever doing such a thing or allowing it to stand.
But I’m uncomfortable about Trump.
___________________________________
Feelings are one thing, but practicalities win elections. Who else, other than Trump, can overcome the Democrat electoral vote juggernaut given the current state of the country?
GO CRUZ!!! Keep it up Trump!!
I have felt this way for some time, not so much because of Trump, just the fact that Dem voters are so disillusioned with their own. Obama built this.
Point well taken.
I will vote for him against the demonRAT, whichever one it is.
And he’s still better than Romney or any Bush.
Certainly has a lot more entertainment value than what we’ve had for a long time.
I think she has had that job for about the last 30 years.
Not me. Their polling is pretty awful and the GOPe bias is as bad as or worse than the traditional media's liberal bias.
She does have an oddly shaped lower jaw. The Donald does know how to point out unfortunate realities.
quote “I just don’t have a good feeling about Trump.
Cruz, even Carson or Walker.
But I’m uncomfortable about Trump.”
I agree... but if he is the only way to keep Bush from being the nominee and utterly destroying the GOPe leadership then i’ll gladly vote for him.
Take a look at the actual poll. There’s some interesting gaps between Dems and Repubs. We’re more enthusiastic. That needs to translate into votes in Nov.
Trump has hit on several critical issues and is so well known that his views swamp other candidates even though they all have the same/similar views.
There is a huge enthusiasm gap between Trump and the other candidates. That will have to be overcome. Trump’s celebrity and voter projection are carrying the day.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/09/10/rel9a.-.gop.2016.pdf
One issue is that this is a poll of ‘registered voters’ of which ‘likely voters’ are a subset.
A few days ago, Sean Hannity mentioned that the dems automatically have “X” number of electoral votes sewn up in “these states” and then named the states.
Rush said the same thing yesterday.
I’m not buying it this election cycle.
Then you must love Walker who has really done things and not just talked about doing them.
“I have felt this way for some time, not so much because of Trump, just the fact that Dem voters are so disillusioned with their own. Obama built this.”
Correct, it’s half and half. Trump is giving whites things to VOTE FOR (i.e., border security, no more PC, etc.), while the Dems are giving whites many things to VOTE AGAINST.
The Republican strategy, for at least the past decade, has been rely on whites voting AGAINST the Democrats, while not offering them a damn thing in return, as in: “Obama sucks, vote for us, because we only have 2 parties. Paid for by the Republican National Committee.”
Trump is saying: “Obama sucks, vote for us, and this why (lots of reasons)...Paid for by Trump for President.”
And so the polling is now reflecting just that.
He he he. Told my wife this morning that Trump commented on iCarly’s “Eagle Beak”....
Until Trump self-destructs ala Perot, handing the election to Hillary!
The American revival can only start when the illegal immigrant issue is resolved once and for all.
Looks like he is staking his entire legacy on that already - if he hasn’t delivered, he would be a one term failure. (assuming he gets that far which I personally hope he does, despite some real misgivings)
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