'I See A Labor Market That Is Looking Hotter And Hotter'

BI ^ | 9-2-2015 | Myles Udland

[blam]

Myles Udland
September 2, 2015

Deutsche Bank's Torsten Sløk thinks the labor market is more than strong enough to justify interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve

In an email on Wednesday, Sløk writes that he continues to talk to clients who don't believe the US economy is anything other than weak, "not good," or on the verge of recession. But the indicators Sløk is looking at show nothing of the sort. In fact, the opposite.

Last week, we highlighted charts from Sløk that showed, to him, an economy picking up steam.

On Wednesday, Sløk turned his focus to the labor market, writing that, "Based on these indicators I would argue that the labor market is already hot and if the Fed delays liftoff further the labor market will be overheated before we get to the neutral fed funds rate, which will only happen in 2017 at the earliest."

The market, for its part, thinks the chances the Fed raises rates in September is about 30%.

In Sløk's view, though, the Fed needs to act.

Here are the charts.

(snip)

[Buckeye McFrog]

“Labor Market” must be the name of a new Sports Illi swimsuit model.

[angcat]

“Labor Market” I thought of the Mexicans in Hazleton.

[headstamp 2]

The only hot labor market around here is illegal alien baby mommas blowing out new citizens.

[babble-on]

The Fed should hike, if they have any sense. They chickened out in June, and now it turns out GDP had grown 3.7% in Q2.

It’s time to get off zero. At this point it’s only helping speculators.

[Biggirl]

Doing it now until Mr. Trump gets in the WH.

[48th SPS Crusader]

All these people simply gloss over or ignore the facet that 8 years again American was a FULL TIME economy. The majority of workers worked in full time jobs w/ benefits. Then came Obama. Now America has a PART TIME economy. More workers are in the part time force and or are working 2 or more jobs to have full time hours, but usually without benefits provided. They then have to go through Obamacare or some other costly expense to have insurance. Why do they hide this? Do they think we do not know what has happened to us?

[SeekAndFind]

DOES THIS BLS DATA LOOK LIKE A HOT LABOR MARKET?

HOUSEHOLD DATA
Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted

[Numbers in thousands]

Category	Total		Men		Women
	July 2014	July 2015	July 2014	July 2015	July 2014	July 2015
NOT IN THE LABOR FORCE
Total not in the labor force	90,451	92,349	35,503	36,309	54,947	56,041
Persons who currently want a job	6,624	6,446	2,851	2,860	3,773	3,586
Marginally attached to the labor force(1)	2,178	1,927	1,069	1,017	1,108	911
Discouraged workers(2)	741	668	444	377	297	291
Other persons marginally attached to the labor force(3)	1,437	1,259	626	639	811	620
MULTIPLE JOBHOLDERS
Total multiple jobholders(4)	6,787	6,997	3,440	3,602	3,347	3,395
Percent of total employed	4.6	4.7	4.4	4.5	4.9	4.9
Primary job full time, secondary job part time	3,606	3,798	2,028	2,198	1,578	1,600
Primary and secondary jobs both part time	1,743	1,902	628	665	1,115	1,237
Primary and secondary jobs both full time	288	247	204	167	84	80
Hours vary on primary or secondary job	1,099	982	566	537	533	446
Footnotes (1) Data refer to persons who want a job, have searched for work during the prior 12 months, and were available to take a job during the reference week, but had not looked for work in the past 4 weeks. (2) Includes those who did not actively look for work in the prior 4 weeks for reasons such as thinks no work available, could not find work, lacks schooling or training, employer thinks too young or old, and other types of discrimination. (3) Includes those who did not actively look for work in the prior 4 weeks for such reasons as school or family responsibilities, ill health, and transportation problems, as well as a number for whom reason for nonparticipation was not determined. (4) Includes a small number of persons who work part time on their primary job and full time on their secondary job(s), not shown separately.
NOTE: Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.

[BipolarBob]

'I See A Labor Market That Is Looking Hotter And Hotter'

I didn't read ANYTHING about Climate Change in this article.

[SeekAndFind]

Series Id:           LNS11300000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status:  Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over

Download:

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2005	65.8	65.9	65.9	66.1	66.1	66.1	66.1	66.2	66.1	66.1	66.0	66.0
2006	66.0	66.1	66.2	66.1	66.1	66.2	66.1	66.2	66.1	66.2	66.3	66.4
2007	66.4	66.3	66.2	65.9	66.0	66.0	66.0	65.8	66.0	65.8	66.0	66.0
2008	66.2	66.0	66.1	65.9	66.1	66.1	66.1	66.1	66.0	66.0	65.9	65.8
2009	65.7	65.8	65.6	65.7	65.7	65.7	65.5	65.4	65.1	65.0	65.0	64.6
2010	64.8	64.9	64.9	65.2	64.9	64.6	64.6	64.7	64.6	64.4	64.6	64.3
2011	64.2	64.2	64.2	64.2	64.1	64.0	64.0	64.1	64.2	64.1	64.1	64.0
2012	63.7	63.8	63.8	63.7	63.8	63.8	63.7	63.5	63.6	63.7	63.6	63.7
2013	63.7	63.5	63.3	63.4	63.4	63.4	63.3	63.2	63.2	62.8	63.0	62.8
2014	63.0	63.0	63.2	62.8	62.8	62.8	62.9	62.9	62.7	62.8	62.9	62.7
2015	62.9	62.8	62.7	62.8	62.9	62.6	62.6

[SeekAndFind]

[TBP]

Working women are wearing sexier clothes?

That’s the only way I see that the labor market could be looking “hotter”.

[SaveFerris]

93 million Americans not in the workforce is not a “hot labor market”.

I have never seen a larger group of lying idiots in my life.

Stupidity reigns in many areas. Unbelievable.

[Georgia Girl 2]

This is a joke right? :-)

[IYAS9YAS]

Hotter and hotter is what an engine gets right before it seizes.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

Wow! Me too!!!!!

The US is creating part time jobs so fast that you can land two or three!!!!!

[blam]

"This is a joke right? :-)"

Bill Gross Thinks Everything Sucks

[nascarnation]

There are far more “help wanted” signs around here (Central Indiana) than in previous years. But they are mostly single digit/hour wages and “29er” hours.

[House Atreides]

ANYTHING you read on the leftist publication “Business Insider” needs to be taken with a grain of salt. They routinely shill for the progressives’ agenda and work to shield/defend the Obama regime.

[zzwhale]

baloney