[papertyger]

No, I predicted the first debate would begin the process. On the first dip in the polls I said it was too early to call a trend. I believe that we have the trend with ongoing confirming poll numbers. The trend is to the effect that Trump's acceleration is slowing, his support is topping, and in some places slipping, that his support ceiling is probably around 20% +2%.

I stand corrected.

Nevertheless, I do not think Trump is the "one trick pony" his detractors seem to believe. Whether by choreography or improvisation, he has defied expectations, and that under unprecedented opposition.

While I understand your and Krauthammer's thesis, without some galvanizing act I can't see anyone else catching him with a slow steady ground game.

His initial appeal may indeed be a nominal 20%, but success has its own appeal, and thinking in terms of an absolute cap seems a bit premature to me.

[nathanbedford]

We are in the early innings so we are both entitled to our own guesses, er, analyses.