Obviously you don’t.
It is hard to reply when I don’t know what you are discussing. What are you referring to, but I will try?
If Intrade were still active we could know immediately who could win the election. Bottom line is this.
1) Cruz will neither be nominated nor elected.
2) Trump is a clown show put on by the Clintons.
3) Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Walker and Fiorina are possible presidential candidates. Carson could be the VP candidate.
4) The rest can pack their bags and go on home.