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The last four elections have been rather close, with the GOP winning in 2000 and 2004 and the Democrat in 2008 and 2012. One telling number in terms of Obama's victory is his appeal to his fellow blacks, even if he is of mixed race background and not of classic African-American heritage. Note that the black vote represented 13% of the electorate in 2008 and 2012, vs. a steady 10-11% in prior elections dating back to their full enfranchisement in the 1960s. The black population is not growing as rapidly as the Hispanic or Asian populations, due to relatively little immigration from African or black Caribbean nations, compared with the influx from Latin America and Asia, plus lower birth rates, thanks to Margaret Sanger's disciples. The bump in the last two election cycles is due to higher turnout to support Obama. The Democrat candidate in 2016 is almost certain to be an old white person, whether Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, etc. Their appeal will parallel that of Gore in 2000 or Kerry in 2004.

The African American voter has been 8:1 or 9:1 Democrat since the 1960s. This is unlikely to change. However, let's assume that the group's voting percentage drops from 13% to 11%. Using 2012 figures, that means that there will be about 2.5 million fewer black voters, which, assuming a 89% Democrat support level (Gore won 90% in 2000 and Kerry won 88% in 2004) means 2.2 million fewer Democrat votes.

How would this translate in 2016 terms? Specifically, what would be the effects in the voting booths in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, Jacksonville, Tampa-Saint Petersburg, Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Richmond, Newport News-Norfolk? Small declines in black voter turnout can make a lot of difference in these purple states. I don't doubt Rick Scott in Florida will use the force of his office to keep the Democrats from cheating in Dade and Broward Counties, including cracking down on Northeastern "dual voters". I'm not so sure about Kasich, however. Virginia's governor is a Clinton crony, so we can assume Democrat ballot box stuffing will occur.