Posted on 07/23/2015 4:35:20 PM PDT by Isara
National Journal’s Charlie Cook: “Plus four” to go along with Trump are Bush, Cruz, Rubio and Walker
HOUSTON, Texas — National Journal’s Charlie Cook wrote about a recent survey conducted by the Cruz campaign’s “highly regarded Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research” where it was noted that “[r]ight now, the ‘plus four’ to go along with Trump are Bush, Cruz, Rubio and Walker.” Excerpts from the article appear below:
A New Poll Shows the Contours of the GOP Field
National Journal
July 23, 2015
Charlie Cook
This poll is particularly interesting because unlike surveys conducted by most news organizations, it starts off sampling from a data file of actual registered voters, then screens down those most likely to actually cast their vote in their state primary or caucus.
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The poll for the Cruz campaign starts off with a trial heat, with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at the top with real likely voters at 17 percent, followed by Trump with 15 percent, well within the 3.5-point margin of error for this survey. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush follows in third with 11 percent, then a two-way tie for fourth between Cruz and Dr. Ben Carson. Next comes Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida with 6 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 5 percent, and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky with 4 percent. Another 12 percent chose someone else, and 16 percent were undecided (polls of likely voters usually show lower numbers of undecided).
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When looking at these ratings it’s useful to look at the ratio of favorables to unfavorables. Carson had the best ratio with 7.4 to 1, Rubio and Walker tied at second with 5.5-1 and Cruz fourth at 3.8 to 1. The four with weakest ratios were Huckabee at 2.7-1, Trump and Bush tied with 1.7-1 and finally Paul 1.5-1.
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Cruz pollster Chris Wilson looked at the new data through the lens of the Selzer Score, finding Walker at the top with a Selzer Score of 74, followed by Trump with 64.5, Bush third with 63.5 and Cruz fourth with 54, just ahead of Rubio’s 53.5. The bottom three were Carson at 46.5, a hair ahead of Huckabee’s 46 then Paul rounding out the pack with 37.5.
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Obviously many more polls will be coming out and new theories will emerge but this survey, along with others that screen down hard are important to consider. Right now, the “plus four” to go along with Trump are Bush, Cruz, Rubio and Walker.
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Trump and Cruz are the only ones I bother to listen to. Maybe Walker on a good day.
The rest are nonentities.
Good news I suppose but even with my guy Cruz I’m still suspicious of Polls ran by the candidate himself.
But then again, I don’t trust the polls by anyone else either. I think everyone of them fudges.
Those are the only ones that should be in the debate: Trump, Bush, Cruz, Rubio, and Walker. The GOP should ask the others to drop out.
“Trump and Cruz are the only ones I bother to listen to. Maybe Walker on a good day.
The rest are nonentities.”
I totally agree.
Sadly, Trump/Cruz/Walker/Carson/Huckabe are splitting the base votes, the 3 prong conservative votes. Bush/Walker/Rubio/Christie are splitting the pocketbook republican votes.
There are far more 3 prong conservatives than any other type, and if they coalesced around one candidate, they’d win going away.
My sense is that Carson and Huckabee are not going to win the nomination. Carson would be a good VP pick. (As would Fiorini)
Bush and Rubio don’t know what to do with Walker, who pulls some of the pocketbook republicans, however, they should both encourage Christie to bow out. Even though he might deliver New Jersey, he’s damaged goods for social conservatives.
Because of electoral college rules, there is a possibility of throwing the vice presidency to a democrat in a close election, if both candidates are from the same state, and there’s no advantage to it, anyway. I don’t know if they’ll fight it out or buy it out, but one of them has to go. In that regard, Rubio is doing a favor to 3 prong conservatives by staying in. He also would be a balancing VP pick who could deliver a major state.
I agree.
Rubio should fizzle out when it becomes apparent that he’s all style and no substance.
He should have never gave up his Senate seat.
Wow,,this debate is going to be fun, and probably rather friendly....and I Hope the participants direct most of their shots towards the Communist Evil Democrats.
Cruzin-The-Top-Tier PING for the list.
Ted Cruz Ping! Same Here!
President Ted Cruz can’t come here soon enough.
Daily Digest Ted Cruz Ping for July 23rd, 2015! Nah, let Carly stick around. She’s rippin’ Hillary a new one.
Jeb Bush should find a day job and drop out of the race.
Hope Ted Cruz’s people here on Free Rublic from his campaign are taking notes of your wise advise.
Any Ted Cruz people here from his campaign ?
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