LePage was barely elected in 2010 and would have lost a two-way race. But in 2014 while running for reelection he got 48% and was 5 points ahead of the rat. I think he still would have won a two-way race, ALL of the Cutler vote wouldn’t have gone rat. So someone more conservative than Susan Collins can win in Maine, narrowly, under the right circumstances. I think LePage should challenge Angus Queen in 2018.
Back to NH, which is the least liberal New England State. Ayotte seems to be about the same ideologically as the man she replaced, Judd Gregg. She’s certainly much better than Susan Collins. Given the circumstances, NH is lucky to have her rather than a rat or a Collins/Snowe type RINO (Scott Brown was better than those 2)
Someone a bit more conservative than Ayotte could win in NH, Sununu was more conservative than her and would have been reelected in 2008 if it wasn’t a rat landslide year. Also it’s important to remember Ayotte was something of a mystery before her election. Opinions of her here on FR varied from “New England Palin” to “Worse than Snowe” turns out she’s “Judd Gregg changed genders”.
The cupboard is pretty bare in NH, no one of consequence will oppose her in the primary, if such a person even exists at the moment. Some weak Christine O’Donnell type would be slaughtered in a general election even if they were capable of a primary upset, which is unlikely. So the choice is clear, her or a 100% Marxist rat. Easy friggin choice for me. Backing some “tea party” Realtor or something would be foolish. Conservatives hunting for RINO hides should look elsewhere.
I have a worse choice personally in Illinois than those in NH do. Mark Kirk might be is the second or third worst Republican in the Senate (He and Lisa Murkowsi are right behind Collins). But compared to my other Senator and my Congressman he’s a brick of GD gold, SOB actually votes my way roughly half the time as opposed to NEVER. And the chances of improving upon him are slim to none. So faced with reality, would I rather have that commie *itch fake war hero Tammy Duckworthless who makes me sick every time I see her? Hell to the no.
Some FRiends will never vote for Kirk and I respect that. Anyone who wouldn’t vote for Ayotte though is a shortsighted fool in my opinion. If she’s their cuttoff point for “unacceptable” then they’re asking for a Senate with a veto proof rat majority.
About MA, I was disappointed Romney only just slightly improved on McPain’s performance, Scott Brown could have won if it didn’t to rely on quite so many crossover voters. That fugly comminist Warren would have gotten creamed in NH and would have lost in ME or CT.
GOP POTUS vote in MA seems pretty stagnant (or stable if you want to call it that), little deviation in the last 3 elections.
Some really good stuff being posted; nice job.
I’ll try to be brief and focus on MA only:
Ronald Reagan was reelected in 1984...31 years and nearly 2 generations ago. No way would he win this state today. Just looking at my own family, how many of them (GOP & semi-sane RATs, excluding my father of course) that voted for Reagan are now dead? And what have they been replaced with?
Answers: Many and with diehard leftists. Demographics are destiny.
As a whole, this country is no where near as patriotic, as American, as it was in 1984...even less so in Massholechusetts. I don’t see a GOP POTUS candidate winning this state again in my lifetime.
Statewide, the best you’ll get is a barely Republican (although he’s doing a good job IMO) Chazz Baker running against a truly unlikeable, weak RAT like Marcia Coakley and squeaking in for the win.
Even the CDs are lost. Look at some of the opportunities and quality candidates (Sean Bielat vs. Bwaney Franklover for example) that have lost.
Nope. MA, like the rest of the deep, deep blue states is what it is - a lost cause.
Good analysis, all of it. But the "right circumstances" in this case is that they actually had a chance to see LePage govern and he didn't do half bad.
Same reason that Reagan did a lot better in New England in 1984 than he did in 1980. As you may recall, he lost only one state in 1980 (Rhode Island), but I believe he would've lost them all (except New Hampshire) had all the votes for John Anderson gone to Jimmy Carter. Anderson provided a decent cover for those folks who couldn't possibly vote for a Republican but knew Carter had been an abject disaster.
I think it is the relative whiteness of New England (especially the northern 3 states) which will allow them to vote for someone other than a Democrat endorsee and still maintain their leftward lean.
This shows what WOULD HAVE happened if every state where Reagan didn't score at least 50% would have flipped. IOW, even if those voting Libertarian or one of the right leaning parties had gone for Carter. Reagan still would have garnered 254 electoral votes.