Solar activity predicted to fall 60% in 2030s, to 'mini ice age' levels: Sun driven by double dynamo

Royal Astronomical Society (RAS) ^ | July 09, 2015 | n/a

[Ken H]

Summary:

A new model of the Sun's solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun's 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone.

Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645.

Results will be presented today by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno.

[miliantnutcase]

I live next door in Minny - I think summer really hasn’t been that warm. At night it’s still upper-50’s and 60’s by now we should be seeing mid 70’s every morning.
During the cold fronts you can still feel “wintery” chill in the wind that normally doesn’t start until late September.

[Red Badger]

Florida is still warm and will probably stay that way.
Until all those liberals up north move down here to escape the Global Cooling..............................Come on down while the land is still cheap!.........................good for gardening as well....................

[nitzy]

So, you are telling me that they made a hypothesis about what the results would be using computer modeling, THEN THEY MEASURED THE ACTUAL RESULTS and it verified their hypothesis?

That is some weird science.

I have been told during the past decade that you are supposed to first have a political opinion about the subject, then you are supposed to gather data, then you are supposed to create computer modeling that predicts the future, then you are supposed to silence anyone who disagrees with your computer models.

Have I been misled here?

[spokeshave]

"This was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow,and our planet began to heal.

Welcome King Barack "Canute" Obama the Great.....

...Obama issues an Executive Order to the Sun...

....to increase it's magnetic field....

and make a good crop of sunspots before 2030....

(PhysOrg.com) -- Sunspot formation is triggered by a magnetic field, which scientists say is steadily declining. They predict that by 2016 there may be no remaining sunspots, and the sun may stay spotless for several decades.

The last time the sunspots disappeared altogether was in the 17th and 18th century, and coincided with a lengthy cool period on the planet known as the Little Ice Age....and lasted 400 years.

Good luck surviving with no coal generated electricity and snowed over solar panels, not forgetting frozen wind generators.

[WKUHilltopper]

Let me guess...and all this ice will cause the earth to get increasingly hotter—and the only thing we can do is pay Al Gore, globalist hack extraordinaire, carbon taxes so he can save us.

[pepsi_junkie]

Great timing. I’ll bet there’s nothing better than retiring to a ski resort in Florida.

[Paleo Pete]

I’ve been checking into this for a while, since I saw a documentary on Newsmax called “Dark Winter”.

Solar activity runs in a coupe of different cycles, one of them mentioned here, another around 200 years. We’re already into a new cycle of decreasing solar activity and fewer sunspots, that’s why there has been no “global warming” since 1997.

Have you noticed the past 2 or 3 winters have been particularly harsh? 2013 Atlanta freeways locked up for days, first time for that. Serious ice conditions they had no idea how to deal with and no experience with it. 2014 the northeast pounded with record snows, in some places 100 year records were broken.

I just stumbled onto a couple of articles the past few days on this same topic.

http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/21116-noaa-s-own-data-shows-that-global-climate-has-cooled-over-10-years

http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150623/ncomms8535/full/ncomms8535.html

And several good articles here

https://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/category/history/dalton/page/3/

Watch the Newsmax TV channel listings, they air Dark Winter now and then but not in the next couple of days, I just checked. Google it and the book is also available. Wish I could get it, I can’t afford a comic book...

[Jonty30]

Would this affect solar power?

[JoeFromSidney]

The Third Horseman: Climate Change and the Great Famine of the 14th Century, by William Rosen.

Describes what happened at the end of the Medieval Warm Period, the last time the sun cooled off. Very disturbing. Herds and crops failed. People starved in large numbers.

[Bubba_Leroy]

Good thing for all that Global Warming or we would be really cold.

Time to fire up the old SUV and drive around for awhile.

[GreyFriar]

Will that mean more water freezing? a new glacial age? New York City being buried under ice instead of being flooded? The ocean levels going lower so that the English Channel will be no more than a narrow stream?

We can only hope and of course Algore will say it is all a side effect of continued glowbul warming

[spokeshave]

Life becomes short, cold and brutish....survival skills include bow hunting Polar Bear

....and protecting your stash....

[broken_arrow1]

Great - cooler summers ahead forTexas!

[zot]

Thanks for the ping and the graph.

We should enjoy global warming while we have it, for sooner or later, the ice ages return.

[spokeshave]

Of course - once the cooling begins the Liberals will be jumping up and down showing how all of their solar panels worked to do this. After a few years of bad crops though I suppose they’ll have to find something else to blame.

Ha...expect a big drop in grain production world wide....

[roadcat]

Cool. (Bad pun, I know).

Too bad the libs got their message banner wrong. If they said "Global Warning" instead of "Warming" they wouldn't need to keep flipping their message back and forth.

[Captain Rhino]

Yeah, got to agree. A 60% reduction in total solar output ought to do a lot more than just cause a “mini-ice age.” Possible misplaced/misread decimal: .06 versus .60?

Interesting cause; exactly out of phase waveforms.

Of course, this raises the question of what mechanism causes the long duration ice ages. Gradual coming into phase also implies a gradual going out of phase on the other side (all other factors being equal) over an article-implied cycle of about 400 years.

Since the pre-historic ice ages lasted thousands of years, how do you keep the waveforms in phase (or nearly in phase) over a very, very long time? Or is it the case that the 400 year cycle holds but something on Earth (or in the Earth’s atmosphere) once started by the diminished solar cycle activity took hold and caused the descent into the millennias-long grip of the ice?

[GreyFriar]

And folks forget that King Canute was NOT showing his power, but that there were things beyond his control. He could not order to change what only God controlled.

Unfortunately, Obama doesn’t realize that and thinks that he has such godly power.

[dragnet2]

I shot this in June of 2012 when Venus crossed or transited in front of the sun from Earth's point of view. I remember looking at this though the scope and through attached cameras.

Remembering Venus is nearly the size of earth and knowing while looking at the image, Venus was still tens of millions of miles away from the Sun. I imagined what the size of the sphere of Venus would look like if it was directly in front of the sun. It would look about as large as a period on this page.

My point is many do not realize the size and capacity of energy or lack of energy the sun is capable of emitting. It directly affects our planet in every way.

Changes in climate have occurred since earth was formed or created. These cycles come and go. Same on the sun. Everything is changing in this universe and has been since the beginning of time.

The next Sun-Venus-Earth alignments will be December 2117.

[Ken H]

That is awesome. You ought to submit it to Astronomy Picture of the Day.