I think he's pretty much nailed what is going on in the pre-pre-pre primary.
The kiss of death for Ted would be failing to make the cut at the first debate, which would put him in the category of marginal loser candidates with Jindal, Fiorina, Kasich, Lindsey, and Santorum. But for that to happen one of those losers would need to go up about 2 points. Which probably isn't going to happen.
Not this time. This time they are important, as Fox is using them to filter who gets to the debate. Failing to get on stage at the debate will be tough to overcome, you will have been sorted into the marginal category, from which you probably will never recover. Certainly Bobby Jindal isn't going anywhere.
We are several months away from the first state primary, and then it is state by state, not national.
Again true for the first tier candidates, but probably not for all the candidates in low single digits and 7th or 8th place and down. Plus: Cruz is also down around 7th place in Iowa and New Hampshire, although he's in 4th in South Carolina. That's not good enough to win the nomination.
In general to win the nomination the successful candidate will have to win a bunch of states, you are right.
Romney won 42 States. Sa ntorum won 11, Newt 2 and Ron Paul won the territory of the Marianas Islands or something.
Can Ted Cruz win Texas? He's ahead in the polls there, 20% to Perry's 16%. What other states can he win?
At this point he's starting to feel a bit like Lindsey - a favorite son.
Maybe we will have a brokered convention! That would be fun.