[x]

I expect those identifying as Republican are decreasing because supporting Republicans and electing Republicans has proven to make no real difference in the past three national elections, even after giving Republicans control of both houses of Congress.

That was true in 2006 and in 2008 (the bad economy didn't help Republicans any in 2006, either).

But Republicans were able to make something of a comeback in 2010 and were doing pretty well earlier this year.

What I suspect happened is that the press spun the the gay marriage decision as such a victory for the president and a cause for celebration that enough swing voters figured that was the way the wind was blowing and they had to be Democrats now.

Certainly all the hoopla helped drive other issues which might be more troublesome for the Democrats off the TV screen for a while.

[Will88]

According to the graph, the Republicans went from even with the Dims to a drop in the first quarter of this year alone. I think that would indicate disillusionment with Boner and McConnell and their caving on every major issue from after the 11/14 mid-terms until the end of the first quarter: cromnibus, the debt ceiling, illegal executive amnesty, funding Obamacare and everything else fully, etc.

The gay marriage decision and TPA would not be reflected in the first quarter. The second quarter just ended and is not included in the graph. Will probably look worse with second quarter added to the graph.