Posted on 06/25/2015 1:02:53 AM PDT by nickcarraway
Yes, pollsters say. ‘Everybody should calm down.’
Real estate tycoon Donald Trump has been gleefully calling attention to a Suffolk University poll showing him in second place among the large 2016 Republican primary field, and whispers of a Trump surge are making the rounds.
It might be wise to take a deep breath.
The poll, released Tuesday, showed former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in the lead in New Hampshire, with 14 percent, followed by Trump with 11. The Trump victory dance, or tweet, quickly followed: “the highly respected Suffolk University poll just announced that I am alone in 2nd place in New Hampshire, with Jeb Bust (Bush) in first.” It’s true that Trump did indeed take second place in that poll. But it’s also true that nationally Trump’s polling has been on the decline, and that his favorability numbers aren’t hot in New Hampshire. The poll also comes far in advance of the New Hampshire GOP primary, to be held early in 2016.
Pollsters and GOP consultants in the state chalked up Trump’s bump to a mixture of his recent candidacy announcement and the high name recognition that comes from his notoriously flamboyant personality, not to mention his reality-show fame.
“Everybody should calm down,” Andy Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire’s Survey Center, said. “What you’re seeing is real in the sense that people who are paying any attention to this in the last week or so have seen Donald Trump on TV. That doesn’t mean they’re going to vote for him.”
Right now, the early polls don’t reflect how many hands have been shaken by a candidate or how much money has been spent on advertising or how many staffers are on the ground there.
“When you’re asking people about who they’re going to vote for in the New Hampshire primary, what you’re asking is, ‘All right, it’s months from the primary now: Who have you seen in the newspaper lately?’ And that would be Donald Trump,” Smith added.
A deeper look at the Suffolk poll results also cast doubt that this really is some kind of Trump surge. On favorability, the poll found Trump underwater among New Hampshire Republican primary voters, with 37 percent saying they had a favorable view of him, while 49 percent have an unfavorable view. A much smaller 13 percent said they were undecided on him, and just 6 percent said they hadn’t heard of him.
By comparison, the Suffolk poll found that 58 percent said they had a favorable view of Bush, while 26 percent said they held an unfavorable view of him. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who came in third in the poll, also had better favorability numbers than Trump — 53 percent said they had a favorable view of him, while 16 percent said they had an unfavorable view. “I think there’s more bad news for him than good news,” New Hampshire Republican operative Tom Rath said, pointing to Trump’s favorability numbers. “I’m not saying the poll is invalid or that it’s faulty as a poll. The timing of it is dubious in that it’s right at the moment of the maximum publicity announcement and that there was a lot of media coverage of it, and so there’s probably a lot of oomph.”
The favorability number might actually show Trump’s ceiling, Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said. In May, the RealClearPolitics average of national polls on the GOP field put Trump at 4.5 percent. But as of late June, Trump is at 3.2 percent.
“At the end of the day, it’s quite possible that Donald Trump will get 11 percent in New Hampshire, but that might be his cap,” Murray said.
The other big tell, former New Hampshire Republican Party chairman Fergus Cullen said, is that there’s no visible grass-roots movement for Trump in the state.
“Do I think it’s a substantive measure of his real support? No way. But do I think it recognizes that he has some name recognition that other candidates don’t have?” Cullen said of the poll. “What I have observed of coverage of those events is that they seem to be made-for-TV events where there’s no authentic interactions with the candidate and voters.”
Cullen stressed that this isn’t a matter of the Suffolk poll’s accuracy, just name recognition.
“If the Suffolk poll had included David Ortiz too, Ortiz might have been first or second,” Cullen said.
Trump filed his FEC Form 2 on June 22, 2015.
http://www.fec.gov/press/resources/2016presidential_form2dt.shtml
Those are just claims. No paperwork to back it up.
That’s a one page form. That doesn’t include the financial ibformation. The next step is a detailed financial picture. Trump can’t do that accurately without revealing he isn’t a billionaire
Yep a one page form but it begins the process. One has to start somewhere.
We’ll see what Trump does, either in or out. But it will be interesting
if he gets in. JMO.
I wouldn’t disbelieve it because Trump is in second. I would disbelieve it because Jeb is first. He won’t win.
No, because he is tapping into the built-up reservoir of Economic Populism which, for better or for worse, will decide the election in 2016.
A millionaire who pretends to be a billionaire who ships jobs overseas is the face of economic populism? If Hillary could face Trump the question would be how much over 70% she could get.
I am aware of the date and there was nothing dishonest about it. < Like it or not, when it comes to liberal Donald Trump he has a high unfavorability rating among Americans. Has it changed since June 2? Pehaps. If you have polling on his unfavorability ratings among Americans with a more recent date please share. If not, we’ll have to wait until one is published.
Failed casino mobster
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