Baking the cake, of course, is not speech. But decorating it should be considered so. The decorating is an artistic skill akin to painting a portrait or making a sculpture. Is there any doubt a portrait painter or sculptor could decline to create a custom piece? I think the cake folks can prevail if they would begin considering their products to be edible art, the medium being cake. Conventional artists decline commissioned pieces at their discretion.
You might have something there. I hope someone puts forth that argument and sees how far it goes.