[Durus]

It is until you realize that they have filled their storage capacity. What that really means is that instead of putting the glut of oil on the market and watching the prices crash they tried to store it to defray the prices falling. Now they are full and they don’t have many options.

[thackney]

The US oil stocks level has been falling now for six weeks after climbing to the peak.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCESTUS1&f=W

[thackney]

While oil stocks are at record high. They are not full. Oil storage capacity has also been built out in the last few years.

New data series show more detail for crude oil stocks, storage by region
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=21552

[Rodamala]

more oil is going out of storage than oil is going in.

Please, reread that. It completely conflicts with what you wrote, Durus.

Thackney wrote that more oil is leaving storage than entering. If true, this means, regardless of the fact that production is going up or down or sideways... the "glut" of oil IS ENTERING THE MARKET, so there must be some sort of demand for it.

I just wonder where is the crash you forecast? Haven't we seen it already? Where is the $17/bbl crude oil that we haven't seen since, like, 1999?

Regardless of all that, there will always be soccermoms driving minivans full of kids to gymnastics or dance classes, or yoga or "pilates for kids" or whatever.

There will always be demand for cold beer and Air Conditioning, because people want an easy life watching "Ow, My Balls", or the "Monday Night Rehabilitation".

By 2020, based on crash/recovery cycles previously, I can easily see recovery to $140/bbl.

Then again, we will have probably been nuked by Iran by that point.