The typical Republican primary, Cruz said, is composed of 35 percent of self-identified moderates, 15 percent libertarians, 25 percent evangelicals and 25 percent conservative/Tea Partiers.
1) Moderates - Jeb, Christie, Graham, others;
2) libertarians - RandyPaul mostly alone with the mantel of Ron; Cruz competes and maybe Trump;
3) Evangelicals - Huckabee, Santorum, Carson, Perry ... and Cruz will compete well here too; and
4) Conservatives/Tea Party - Cruz has a strong lead and he owns this bracket; Walker is in here too.
And then shrewdly, Cruz states that neither Walker or Rubio have a natural constituency and are trying to compete in each bracket as less than the #1 seed.
I do hope that Senator Cruz is intentionally misrepresenting some of the percentages above. It's scary if that is accurate.
And I do believe that Senator Cruz will be very smart, both strategically and tactically. And I agree with Lakeshark that Rubio is a threat. He can compete in all four brackets, especially if he becomes the gOpE's last best hope.
I agree that Cruz is a bit off on his percentages, and maybe intentionally. I agree with your analysis of each group too.