Posted on 05/31/2015 6:29:23 PM PDT by Kaslin
The Republican combat veteran of Iraq and district attorney running in the June 2 special election for Mississippi-1 leads Democrat Walter Hunter Zinn Jr., 54 percent to 37 percent, according to a May 28 Townhall/Gravis poll of 509 likely voters.
Trent Kelly, a colonel in the Mississippi National Guard, is the choice for 77 percent of Tea Party voters and 69 percent of voters opposed to abortion rights, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based polling company that conducted the poll. The poll carries a 4 percent margin.
Among voters, living in households with at least one gun, Kelly leads 65 percent to Zinn's 28 percent. But, in households without at least one gun, Zinn leads 58 percent to 30 percent.
The district includes Tupelo, the birthplace of Elvis Presley, and sits in the Mississippi River Delta. Kelly is the district attorney for Lee, Pontotoc, Alcorn, Monroe, Itawamba, Prentiss and Tishomingo counties.
Zinn is an attorney and political activist, who worked as a senior advisor to two mayors of Jackson and has campaigned for raise taxes for water and road infrastructure.
In his campaign biography, Zinn quotes William Faulkner: “To understand the world, you must first understand a place like Mississippi.”
The special election was called by Mississippi Gov. D. Phillip Bryant after the Feb. 6 death of congressman P. Alan Nunnelle.
Kelly has received support from the congressman's widow, Tori, and the colonel's campaign manager Morgan Baldwin was a staffer for the congressman.
Brian Perry, a seasoned Mississippi Republican operative and consultant, said the poll results fit into how he has been seeing the race develop.
“It is a Republican district, but there are many old-line Democrats there, who can make it competitive, but Mr. Zinn has not been to make it competitive,” he said.
Perry said he would not place Kelly in a particular faction in the Mississippi Republican Party, which was wrought with a bitter Senate primary in 2104 between Sen. W. Thad Cochran and state Sen. Christopher B. McDaniel.
“I do not see him as an establishment or Tea Party candidate, he just ran on his record,” Perry said.
“Kelly is a conservative Republican, who put together a good campaign,” he said. “Kelly's district, where he is district attorney, covers about a third of the congressional district and he was very effective building a grassroots campaign from is his support from the National Guard across the state.”
[The poll has a margin of error of ± 4%, was conducted using IVR technology on May 28th, and the results were weighted by anticipated voting demographics. A complete accounting of the results according to party, race, gender, age group, education category, and other demographic variables is available upon request.]
Unlikely that the GOP will blow this one.
Ummmmm ... what, exactly are "voters opposed to abortion rights"?
Good thing more people there are armed than not!
Mississippi ping
Trent Kelly? When’s the election?
Oops June 2... Sorry... Going to bed...
Rights for whom; the perpetrator or the victim?
OK, so that poll had Republican Trent Kelly up by a surprisingly close 54% to 37%, and he ends up beating the Democrat by—get this—70% to 30%. So the pollster only missed the winning margin by 23%! That was quite the scientific poll there.
LOL
The rat was lucky to carry 2 majority Black counties.
“The poll has a margin of error of ± 4%, was conducted using IVR technology on May 28th, and the results were weighted by anticipated voting demographics.”
Looks like you weighted them wrong! I did seem off to me, there was no sign that rat was at all competitive.
That’s the kind of poll that a reputable firm would be put out of business over (especially one taken days before the election). The margin of victory was wider than the % of votes received by the Dem. Close race turned out to be an utterly desultory campaign by the Dem, propped up by the media.
Well, the 17 point margin they had was a closer than I expected the race to be, but it hardly painted it as a “close race”.
But still, it was way off, 23 points off, which is ludicrous.
News Flash! Where do you get the idea that the poll was scientific?
When, after describing how the poll was off by 23%, wrote “That was quite the scientific poll there,” I did not think that a sarcasm tag was necessary. It clearly was a shoddy “poll” with an unsound sample and absurd assumptions about turnout that skewed the results even more.
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