Sorry...sloppy analysis...fumbles are NOT more likely to occur the last half of the 4th qtr of any game than other pts of the game.
I didn’t see in your post where you laid out fumbles per quarter, running plays per quarter, that kind of stuff.
I wasn’t doing any analysis, just pointing out things I would look for.
Based on what you said, you must have all this stuff figured out already, and I just haven’t seen it.
Or, you are just taking a couple big numbers and making some big assumptions.