Posted on 05/07/2015 2:44:04 PM PDT by iowamark
A General Election exit poll has forecast that the Conservatives will be the largest party in Parliament, but that it is uncertain whether they will be able to secure an overall majority.
The poll, conducted by Gfk, NOP and Ipsos Mori on behalf of the BBC, ITV News and Sky News, indicated that David Cameron's party will win 316 seats - 10 short of a majority.
The poll forecast that Labour will win 239 seats, while the Liberal Democrats will slump to 10 seats - 47 less than they secured in the 2010 election.
According to the exit poll, the biggest gains will be made by the Scottish National Party, who are forecast to win 58 of Scotland's 59 seats.
According to the forecast, Ukip will win its first two seats in Parliament, while the Green Party will also win two seats - a gain of one.
The poll consisted of interviews with 22,000 people at 141 polling stations in 133 constituencies throughout Great Britain.
I wonder where the majority will come from. I thought UKIP was on the rise. only 2 seats? confused.
Conservatives on the basis on that exit poll (the only one actually, but I will come back to that) are very close to an overall majority (323). Their present coalition partner would carry them over the threshold, but also the Northern Ireland votes may be very interesting. UKIP will probablyalso support Tories (definitely not Labour).
There is another exit poll (YouGov) bandied about which has the vote much closer (Cons 284, Labour 263). However, this is what Daily Telegraph says about that poll:
22.42 YouGov exit poll in doubt.
Confusion reigns over the Yougov “exit poll”, which Labour and the Lib Dems have been seizing on. In fact, Yougov has confirmed, it is not an exit poll at all. It has just re-contacted people it surveyed yesterday and found that the results haven’t changed. It means that the Yougov poll has far less credibility than the exit poll, suggesting Labour and the Lib Dems could be in for a bad night.
(The numbers below represent the composition of the Commons prior to its dissolution on 30 March 2015.)
HM Government
Conservative Party (302)
Liberal Democrats (56)
HM Most Loyal Opposition
Labour Party (256)
Other Opposition
Democratic Unionist Party (8)
Scottish National Party (6)
Sinn Féin (5, in abstention)
Plaid Cymru (3)
SDLP (3)
UK Independence Party (2)
Alliance Party (1)
Green Party (1)
Respect Party (1)
Independent (5)
Dear Confused, :-)
That is what happens in a first past the post competition, when a smallish party gets squeezed between two larger ones. UKIP had increased in the polls from well below 10% to above 10%, but unless they collect a lot of votes in a few constituencies they will not win any seats. The fate of the Liberal party for many years.
THAT makes sense :)
The UKIP vote certainly rose. However, to win a seat in Parliament, (or the US Congress), one needs to win a plurality in a constituency. Most UKIP voters are former Conservative voters but there are very few areas where they could actually hope for a plurality.
First result in; Labour holds Sunderland, a Labour stronghold. Lab increased its share of the vote by 4.5% which is smaller than expected, and needed over the country as a whole. UKIP did well with 21%. Here is Daily Telegrph’s take on that sole result:
The result in Sunderland South bears close examination. Yes, the Labour majority went up by around 2,000, but on Ed Miliband’s strategy, it should have risen much more.
The Lib Dems got 5,200 votes here in 2010. This year, they got barely 700. Mr Miliband has been banking on Lib Dem deserters going to Labour.
These numbers suggest that less than half of them have done so. Instead, they look like they have gone to Ukip, which leapt into second place ahead of the Conservatives.
If this is repeated elsewhere, Mr Miliband’s entire electoral strategy has failed.
I like what they stand for but see streaks of anti Semitism here and there. But they disavow it when it happens.
I am hoping that is in addition of the two they had already, so the total will be 4.
I guess that will go towards the 629 majority?
23.07
Ladbrokes reports that it could be on course to pay out a whopping £20 million if the Tories have done as well as the exit poll suggests.
My heart bleeds......NOT
The Conservatives look set to form a minority government with outside support from conservative Northern Ireland parties. Should be enough to pass their program.
Fun watching the results live on C-Span - as I understand it, the Liberal-Democrats took a beating because their voters resented their having helped the Conservatives form a majority five years ago - in Scotland particularly they took off for the SNP “progressive” party which promises a stronger voice for Scotland “In Westminster”, but their leader insists there will not be another referendum on Scottish independence in the foreseeable future - love the formal way the results of voting are given in each precinct or whatever it’s called - scripted almost word for word with the candidates standing right there while their fate is announced - sure beats the way the results come dribbling in in this country.....
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