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To: Lou L; grania
In a heartbeat. I'd take this even without any interest.

That sounds appealing, but depending on your age, you may be giving up a lot.

I wrote earlier than I had done the calculations for my contributions. Since I was working during the 80's, I could have invested in long-term US Treasury bonds that were earning double-digit rates. In 1981, the average dividend rate was 13.45%. I'd still be holding 30-year bonds from the late 80's that are paying more than 8%.

My point: that interest adds up. My mythical $1,000,000 balance would consist of only about $300,000 in contributions. The remaining $700,000 would be dividends earned over my working career.

If that offer was made to me, I'd have to carefully consider it, comparing it to the net present value of my expected benefits.

80 posted on 04/21/2015 8:00:29 AM PDT by justlurking (tagline removed, as demanded by Admin Moderator)
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To: justlurking
I can't imagine how the future plays out well. Those of us who have any savings at all, it's because our savings accrued interest. How are younger people, with less stable jobs, periods of unemployment, and no pensions ever going to prepare for the future? Add to that, a lot of the elder generation (70+) is spending down savings and using other assets because interest rates aren't what were anticipated.

The middle class can never recover financially, not unless something really extreme happens.

82 posted on 04/21/2015 8:20:57 AM PDT by grania
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To: Lou L; grania; skeeter
BTW, I had a stray thought that I decided to check out.

In my original posting, I mentioned that I'd have about $2,000,000 by the time I'm 70, and would have to live until I'm 102 to get it back.

I did that by taking my actual contributions, investing them into a long-term US Treasury Bond (20 or 30-year) each year, at the average rate for that year.

But then, I simply calculated the net present value of my currently legislated benefits, using a 4% discount rate. If you are familiar with the NPV function in Excel, that's how I did it.

However, it occurred to me that I would STILL own US Treasury bonds paying high dividend rates -- up to 8%. So, what if I projected those dividend payments and bond redemptions (as they mature), subtracting my legislated benefits from them each year, and only reinvesting the remainder?

I projected that any bond reinvestment would be for 4% dividends, and that inflation would be 3% (increasing my SS benefit each year). But until the older bonds matured, they would continue to pay the dividend rate for the year those bonds were purchased.

What I found: it's worse than I thought. I would be able to fund the equivalent of my Social Security benefit solely out of dividend payments and maturing bonds until I turned 99. And, I'd still have nearly $3,000,000 remaining.

I haven't programmed a redemption strategy thereafter (which would be cashing in the lowest interest rate bonds). It wouldn't really matter, because by that time every bond would be paying my projected 4%.

But, it appears the remaining balance would last until I'm 116.

I'm going through this exercise simply to show how much your Social Security contributions would be worth, if you had simply invested them in US Treasury bonds. But, keep in mind that your situation is probably not the same as mine. I'm at the high end of the average indexed monthly wage scale, and as you get closer to the other end, the value of your benefits will be much closer to the value of your contributions.

89 posted on 04/21/2015 11:48:52 AM PDT by justlurking (tagline removed, as demanded by Admin Moderator)
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