Posted on 04/10/2015 9:39:03 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The Republican primary battle has been called a wide-open contest — the “deepest” and “strongest” field in many cycles. It is full of the party’s rising stars and hopefuls, like Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and Bobby Jindal, alongside the most formidable name in Republican politics: Bush.
But the campaign is not nearly as open as it looks. Many of the candidates who have received the most news media attention have little or no chance of winning the nomination. Instead, two figures — Jeb Bush and Mr. Walker — have quickly moved to the head of the pack. Perhaps only Rubio has a good chance to join them at the top.
Mr. Bush and Mr. Walker could implode, of course, with a Rick Perry-esque “oops” or an unexpected scandal. But if they avoid such mistakes they will be difficult to dislodge, even with strong fund-raising by rivals like Mr. Cruz.
The contest is closer to becoming a true two-way race — if one candidate falters, the likeliest outcome is that the other wins — than the wide-open race that pundits describe and polls imply.
It may seem far too early to make such bold pronouncements, with nine months to go until the Iowa caucuses and with only two candidates formally in the race. But presidential primaries, like presidential general elections, have a set of underlying fundamentals that help determine from the very start which candidate will win the nomination.
These fundamentals — the amount of support from party elites and the potential to build a broad coalition — can be hard to measure. But they nonetheless allow for a much clearer picture of the 2016 Republican race than many people realize. From a historical perspective, these candidates are new characters playing familiar roles.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
HERE’s HOW THE WRITER SEE’s THE RACE:
1) INVISIBLE PRIMARY LEADERS
ARCHETYPES Hillary Clinton, 2016; Mitt Romney, 2012; Hillary Clinton, 2008; George W. Bush, 2000; Al Gore, 2000; Bob Dole, 1996; George H.W. Bush, 1988; Walter Mondale, 1984; Ronald Reagan, 1980
2016 VERSION Jeb Bush, or no one
2) MAINSTREAM ALTERNATIVES
ARCHETYPES Tim Pawlenty, 2012; Rick Perry, 2012; Fred Thompson, 2008; Barack Obama, 2008; Joe Biden, 2008; Christopher Dodd, 2008; Bill Richardson, 2008; Mitt Romney, 2008; John McCain, 2008 and 2000; John Edwards, 2008 and 2004; John Kerry, 2004; Richard Gephardt, 2004 and 1988; Bill Bradley, 2000; Lamar Alexander, 1996; Bill Clinton, 1992; Paul Tsongas, 1992; Bob Dole, 1988; Michael Dukakis, 1988; Al Gore, 1988; John Glenn, 1984; George H.W. Bush, 1980
2016 VERSIONS Scott Walker; Marco Rubio; Bobby Jindal; John Kasich; Rob Portman; Mitt Romney; Rick Perry; Mike Pence
3) FACTIONAL FAVORITES
ARCHETYPES Pat Buchanan, 1996 (religious populist); Al Sharpton, 2004 (social justice); Mike Huckabee, 2008 (evangelicals); Rick Santorum, 2012 (evangelicals); Howard Dean, 2004 (antiwar); Jon Huntsman, 2012 (moderates); Ron Paul, 2008 and 2012 (libertarians); John Anderson, 1980 (independents); Jesse Jackson, 1984 and 1988 (social justice); George Wallace, 1976 (Southern Democrats); Gary Bauer, 2000 (evangelicals); Newt Gingrich, 2012 (Tea Party); Michele Bachmann, 2012 (Tea Party); Herman Cain, 2012 (Tea Party); Dennis Kucinich, 2008 (liberals); Steve Forbes, 2000 and 1996 (plutocrats); Alan Keyes, 1996 and 2000 (conservatives)
2016 VERSIONS Chris Christie (moderates); Ted Cruz (Tea Party); Rand Paul (libertarians); Mike Huckabee (evangelicals); Ben Carson (Tea Party); Mr. Santorum (religious right)
CLICK ABOVE LINK TO SEE HIS REASONS.
[Ted Cruz (Tea Party); Rand Paul (libertarians); Mike Huckabee (evangelicals); Ben Carson (Tea Party); Mr. Santorum (religious right)...]
TED CRUZ transcends all groups. He is destined for POTUS
TED CRUZ - MORE THAN QUALIFIED TO BE POTUS - 2016
http://www.tedcruz.org/
Pretty impressive...
• Solicitor General of Texas from 2003 - May 2008, Cruz was the first Hispanic Solicitor General in Texas, the youngest Solicitor General in the entire country, not to mention the longest tenure in Texas history.
• Partner at the law firm Morgan, Lewis & Bockius, where he led the firm’s U.S. Supreme Court and national appellate litigation practice.
• Cruz has authored 80+ SCOTUS briefs and presented 40+ oral arguments before The Court
• Cruz served as a law clerk to Chief Justice William Rehnquist. Cruz was the first Hispanic ever to clerk for a Chief Justice of the United States
• Described as a ‘superb’ constitutional lawyer, the man’s considerable skills and laser-like focus were on display for all when he took oily reptile Eric Holder by the neck and made him
answer the damn question.
• In the landmark case of District of Columbia v. Heller, Cruz assembled a coalition of 31 states in defense of the principle that the 2nd Amendment guarantees an individual right to keep and bear arms.
• Cruz presented oral argument for the amici states in the companion case to Heller before the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
• In addition to his victory in Heller, Cruz has successfully defended the Ten Commandments monument on the Texas State Capitol grounds, the recitation of the Pledge of Allegiance in public schools and the majority of the 2003 Texas redistricting plan. Cruz also successfully defended, in Medellin v. Texas, the State of Texas against an attempt by the International Court of Justice to re-open the criminal convictions of 51 murderers on death row throughout the United States.
• Director of the Office of Policy Planning at the Federal Trade Commission
• Domestic Policy Advisor to U.S. President George W. Bush on the 2000 Bush-Cheney campaign.
• Adjunct Professor of Law at the University of Texas School of Law in Austin, where he taught U.S. Supreme Court litigation
• Ted Cruz is currently junior US Senator from Texas. In order to win the 2012 Republican nomination for the Senate seat vacated by Kay Bailey Hutchison, Cruz had to defeat Texas Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst -heavily favored/backed by the DC old-guard GOP- in the Republican primary runoff. In the event, TEA Party favorite Cruz crushed Dewhurst, 57-43%...
he then beat Democrat Paul Sadler in the general election by a similar margin, 56-41. Cruz is also endorsed by the Tea Party Movement and the Republican Liberty Caucus.
• AWARDS: “America’s Leading Lawyers for Business,” Chambers USA (2009 & 2010) “50 Most Influential Minority Lawyers in America,” National Law Journal (2008) “25 Greatest Texas Lawyers of the Past Quarter Century,” Texas Lawyer (2010) “20 Young Hispanic Americans on the Rise,” Newsweek (1999) Traphagen Distinguished Alumnus, Harvard Law School
• On November 14, 2012, Cruz was appointed vice-chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He is now spearheading efforts in the Senate to have root-and-branch...
Godspeed, Senator Cruz- I’m all in.
In other words....
Pay no attention to the Candidate the democrats have chosen for you. Watch the republican race instead and do as you’re told on election day.
In the end, I think Ted Cruz’s masterful start to the 2016 campaign makes him a favorite in the Republican field.
I can’t even imagine running another Bush. The press hounded Bush to death. Just the last name alone will be a deal killer and Bush didn’t do us any favors.
Cruz, being strong against amnesty is my fav but his polls are not great but then again how much can you trust the polls? I still remember when Reagan got elected how shocked the Dems were that night.
It was a night to remember:)
The polls on Cruz are worthless until after the first few debates, I think.
I guess I would fall into the evangelical Christian category and there is no way I would ever support Huckabee or Santorum. If you are a Conservative (whether Christian or not), Cruz is by far the very best in the field.
Walker would be a distant second - I just don’t trust blue state Republicans to stick to their guns. Although Walker has impressed me with what he has accomplished.
The rest of the field can run on the DNC ticket for all I care.
America needs a decisive leader to change the nation’s direction in the White House, not a manager to supervise its decline more efficiently.
Egos will get in the way. In a non-incumbent election year I think we’ll see a bunch of GOP candidates.
As of now. My support is with Walker. He’s the most battle hardened, has no problem throwing punches at the left, and has a proven track record of defeating whatever the Liberal cesspool throws at him. Of course that can change once debates start. But as of now, he’s my choice.
I professedly come to election decisions first and foremost as a social conservative. I no longer have any faith that the Republican Party will nominate anyone who supports me and my beliefs. I will still choose to support those who support me, even though they might have little or no chance—first, to try to bring the Party back toward the Right; second, to stick my finger in the eye of those who despise me and my beliefs, both those in the Republican establishment, and conservatives of other branches who are opposed to social conservative ideas and principles.
Those who I am still strongly looking at are Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, and Bobby Jindal.
I don’t care who likes it and who doesn’t. I will vote my beliefs, win or lose.
I am SICK OF THE BUSH name always getting the headlines. NOTE to JEB: PLEASE STAY IN FLORiDUH~!
As of now. My support is with Walker. He’s the most battle hardened, has no problem throwing punches at the left, and has a proven track record of defeating whatever the Liberal cesspool throws at him. Of course that can change once debates start. But as of now, he’s my choice.
I agree.
Many of the candidates who have received the most news media attention have little or no chance of winning the nomination. Instead, two figures — Jeb Bush and Mr. Walker — have quickly moved to the head of the pack. Perhaps only Rubio has a good chance to join them at the top.
I had to pause and re-think who write this drivel... probably in the Slimes.
And, then, lo and behold, see that it's the Slimes. Up to their tricks of attempting to choose the R candidate.
And, BTW, seeing this makes me want Cruz even more over my distant second choice of Walker.
I'd rather Cruz than Walk!
There’s an interesting dynamic shaping up between Cruz and Walker.
Cruz fights back by head-on attacks that levels the Progressive case on points. Walker outflanks, dismissing tge Progressive case out of hand and changing the subject onto more favorable political ground.
It’s a very effective one-two punch that plays to their respective strengths and bodes very well for Conservatism in general this cycle, regardless of who the nominee is.
My thing is this:
since Reagan left office, I’ve given my trust over to a lot of candidates. For each one, there are promising signs early on, pieces of record that point towards hope, etc.. and once they’re elected, almost every single time, I’ve seen them cave.
I want to believe Walker. And I realize that, in some way, I’m punishing him less for what he’s done and more for the betrayals of similarly-situated past Republicans. That said, he has my vote in the general should he be the nominee. Cruz is my guy in the meantime. He’s the real deal.
And if it’s Bush on Election Day, I’m going fishing.
Bush needs to just go away and take Fat-So with him
Hopefully it will turn out like Rush said and that will be for all of these egomaniacs getting to gather against Hilary and not spend there time sniping at each other.
IMOP right now and in the end it will be Cruz or Walker.The others are all testing the waters for the future.
There’s an interesting dynamic shaping up between Cruz and Walker.
Cruz fights back by head-on attacks that levels the Progressive case on points. Walker outflanks, dismissing tge Progressive case out of hand and changing the subject onto more favorable political ground.
It’s a very effective one-two punch that plays to their respective strengths and bodes very well for Conservatism in general this cycle, regardless of who the nominee is.
I like your thinking.
It is heartening that, with the exceptions of Bush and Christie, they are all better tha Romney. So far, Cruz has shown a mastery of the election process. The ultimate question becomes, “will the MSM be able to Palinize him?”
Yet I remain melancholy about the E-GOP dropping the ball in the Primaries and with the Debates.
* Pribeus did not push for closing the primaries.
* Whilst it will be a blessing getting Hugh Hewitt on the dais to ask questions, where is the ENTIRE PANEL that can ask serious question i.e., Prager, Dr Sowell etc to ask questions of OUR candidates, not the majority of the panel being leftist schlubs like George Steponallofus...
Cruz, Walker, Paul with have to debate with a centricity of eviscerating the press 1st when they are stupid and I don't know if that will get old with the Lo-Info-Voters...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.