Walter Capps never should have won, Dole carried the district IIRC, but that area is a lot less Republican now.
I just went and reacquainted myself on the demographics of the time. By the ‘90s, it had two somewhat polarized areas within it. Santa Barbara County being left-leaning and San Luis Obispo being Conservative leaning. Up to that point, Bob Lagomarsino (one of the few Republicans to succeed in a special election during the Watergate era in 1974) had done fairly well in holding the seat. His closest call, however, came during the 1988 Presidential year where he eked out a win of less than 2% over a State Senator named Gary Hart). He received 72% in 1986, so that was quite a scare and his lowest performance of his House career.
Lago got back up to 55% against a Latina leftist. When Huffington came in, he only beat Lago by 6%, and that was only a plurality. Although Huffington defeated his Latina Dem opponent in 1992 by 18%, in actuality, he got just 52.5% of the vote while the leftist bloc (the Dem and a Green) collected about 45%.
When Seastrand and Walter Capps first faced off in 1994, the ideological pull of both counties was obvious. She won SLO, he won SB. With no Green candidate (but a Libertarian), she won with a plurality of just 1,500 votes out of more than 200k cast (49.3-48.5%). This was a true test of ideologies, since it was considered then that for a coastal district as such, she was “too Conservative” for it. Capps was, conversely, too leftist for it. A bonafide moonbat from the education sector.
Given that Newt had been made the face of the GOP and all the Dems were flogging that horse something fierce for 1996, Seastrand’s unapologetic support for him cost her here. This time around, Walter’s % in SLO went up (although he still lost the county) and was able to clear it with actually slightly less than what he got as a percentage in 1994 (but in raw votes, he increased his numbers from 101k to 118k; she only went up from 103k to 108k).
Bob Dole did win the district in 1996, but in percentages, it was just 44% and he won by only several hundred votes. It was apparent that Perot’s voters may have been more favorably inclined to Capps (though there was an actual Reform candidate in the race, but they got just 1.6%). The Libertarian got just .9%, so adding in those two would not have gotten Seastrand another term.
However, there was an Independent candidacy, one Stephen Wheeler, who got 10k votes. Combing his votes with the other two, assuming they were center-right leaning, could’ve combined to push Seastrand to a second term by another narrow margin. I did a cursory investigation, and it appears he may be a dentist from Santa Barbara who has contributed to both parties, but I get the impression he was a “moderate” Republican, so this may be the missing piece of the puzzle.
The Dems were at least smart here to put the kibosh on having Greens pull enough votes away at the time (however, it also served to pull the party even further leftward). Had Walter Capps lived, Barone theorized he would be too leftist for the district to last in office against a less Conservative (than Seastrand) Republican. He died at an opportune time, barely into his term, and allowed the “grieving widder” to take his seat. I would not have predicted in 1998 that she would still be in the seat by January 2017.