Posted on 04/02/2015 3:52:53 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
While the world focuses on the dangers that a nuclear-armed Iran could present in the Middle East, a potentially more dangerous and unstable nuclear proliferation is occurring in the Indian Ocean.
In the coming years India, Pakistan, and perhaps China will likely deploy a significant number of nuclear weapons at sea in the Indian Ocean. This could further destabilise already unstable nuclear relationships, creating a real risk of a sea-based exchange of nuclear weapons.
Observers have long seen India-Pakistan nuclear rivalry as the most unstable in the world, and South Asia as the most likely location of nuclear conflict. This is not just academic speculation. Foreign diplomats have been evacuated from Islamabad on several occasions from fears of an impending nuclear exchange with India.
India has a 'no first use' (NFU) nuclear-weapons policy of sorts, although it is increasingly subject to caveats and exceptions. But Islamabad refuses to adopt an NFU policy and indeed has announced a long list of actions that it claims would justify a nuclear response against India. Pakistan is also busy miniaturising its nuclear weapons for tactical use, thus reducing the threshold for Pakistani nuclear action.
Importantly, Pakistan sees its nuclear arsenal not only as a deterrent but also as an enabler, providing an umbrella under which it can sponsor sub-conventional attacks against India. In the face of terrorist attacks such as those in Mumbai in 2008, Delhi has found its options constrained by concerns about a possible Pakistani nuclear response. But few are confident that India's restraint can be maintained in the face of another serious cross-border attack that is proved to have been sponsored by Pakistan.
Both India and Pakistan are now in the process of moving their nuclear weapons capabilities into the maritime realm.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearworld.com ...
Author’s premise is flawed and amounts to an exercise in distraction and misdirection. None of the other nuclear countries he mentions have openly expressed the desire to obliterate other nations either as Iran has.
“creating a real risk of a sea-based exchange of nuclear weapons.”
Yeah, anyone who writes stuff like this doesn’t have a clue about what the dangers are. The dangers of a country possessing nuclear weapons is not that it might use them, because most countries are not stupid enough to use them and ensure their own destruction. The danger is that, by having nuclear weapons, they are free to bully all of their neighbors who do not have nuclear weapons with virtual impunity.
And what you notice here also (concerning your bully comment), is that Pakistan and India don’t play that game with non-nuclear nations on their borders. India and Pakistan do have skirmishes and we know what they are all about.
Iran on the other hand is playing a fools game by proxy in it’s region. And when it does get nukes, you can bet your ass they’re going to play the bully game big-time.
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the emirate nations all know this. As I understand it, Egypt does as well.
So Obama plays this game of arm the Iranians with nukes, while the rest of Islam by and large, doesn’t have them.
The man is certifiably ignorant.
Maybe the three should take out Iran.
None of the others have threatened nuclear war. Iran has, repeatedly. Not threatened, promised.
The Pakistanis call their nukes “the Islamic bomb” and offer them freely to other Sunnis. The right thing to do is for the USA to eliminate those nukes and break up Pakistan — giving the leftist Balochis to Iran (to cause trouble there — also note that Baluchistan is the eastern part of the Baloch people (who are Irani), and the western part live in the Irani province of Sistan-e-Baloch) and giving the Pathan NWGP to Afghanistan, reducing Pakistan to just west Punjab and Sindh (the two of whom hate each other) with the Muhajirs to spice things up
Wrong. Pakistan has
pakistan has explicitly said that they will retain first use of Nuclear weapons as an option
Pakistan does play that game...
Pakistan has also threatened and promised nuclear war. Their nukes are also at the Saudis disposal
Does it threaten it’s neighbor nations other than India?
I think we could take India to task on that issue as well, but I believe India has to bluster to a certain extent just to remind Pakistan that it will pay a terrible toll if it uses it’s nukes.
It is interesting that the skirmishes between Pakistan and India subsided once the U. S. got involved with Pakistan during the wars subsequent to 09/11/2001.
Yes. It created the Taliban and sponsored, trained and protected them until this year (may be they still do)
Yes. It created the Taliban and sponsored, trained and protected them until this year (may be they still do) -- so it caused trouble in 2 of its 3 neighbors.
Also, the problem is that these are all more "countries" rather than "nations" -- Pakistan for instance is a country of 5 nations: Punjabis, Sindhis, Baluchis (who are an Irani people who are also in the neighboring Irani province of Sistan-e-Baloch), Pushtuns/Pathans (who are also the majority in Afghanistan -- they were split by the British Durand line (which was set up by the English after their failed Anglo-Afghan wars in the 19th century) in the North-West Frontier province) and Muhajirs (Moslems from what is now northern India/Uttar Pradesh) --> they speak, respectively: Punjabi, Sindhi, Balochi, Pushtun and Urdu
Similarly India is a federation of at least 30 to 40 different "nations" with multiple languages (400 I think), scripts (at least 24), histories, cultures, religions.
Afghanistan is dominated by Pushtuns but has still large populations of Tajiks (another Irani people), Hazaras (Mongolic peoples), Uzbeks and Turkmen (both Turkic peoples) as well as some Punjabis. Even Iran is not majority Persian but has many other Irani groups (Kurds, Balochis etc.) and some Arabs, Turkmen, Assyrians, Armenians etc. (the Assyrian and Armenian Christians are free to practise their religions and their ancient churches are not molested).
Sorry, got carried away
err... why?
Not really, the border clashes still continue
Cronos, the issue is whether they threaten with nukes. I’m not convinced the Taliban is state sponsored terrorism either. The Taliban has it’s sights on taking down the government, so I doubt the government is it’s biggest friend. It could be that the government is reaching out to them, which would be quit problematic.
Several years ago, there was grave concern that at least some of Pakistan’s nukes would come under Taliban control.
No problem. Your comments were interesting.
We may be talking past each other, but I don’t recall Pakistan ever using their nukes for bluster with other nations than India, itself a nuclear armed state.
My comments were made in relationship to Iran, which if it did obtain the bomb is almost certain to do exactly that. It would threaten all it’s neighbors with use of the bomb.
I am not alone in this thought. Saudi Arabia, the Emerate Nations, and a number of others are concerned with this as well.
Your comments about the Taliban, while relevant don’t really address the same thing I am. At least not in my perception.
Take care.
If one takes Pakistan to task for bluster, then they should also take India to task for bluster. Heck, I’m taking Putin to task for it right now.
I did mention that India is in a situation where it has to bluster if Pakistan is going to, so I do realize there’s a reason for the bluster.
IMO, Pakistan has been the aggressor with India, so I understand your objection, and wouldn’t disagree with it’s merits.
It’s my thought that you don’t bluster when it comes to the use of nukes. You use back channels to let your opposition know exactly what will happen if they should be so stupid, but it isn’t a matter for public discourse.
Yes, but they have been kept in that frame of reference. Neither side has intimated they were on the verge of using nukes over it.
Compared to the late 90s or the early 2000s, that is an improvement.
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