Posted on 03/28/2015 3:17:44 PM PDT by expat_panama
U.S. available labor force (157,002,000 people) with a labor force participation rate of 62.8 percent (lowest since the late 70’s under Carter) yields 58,404,774 potential workers not working. Not sure if the govt. is “massaging” the “avail. labor force” numbers down to make things seem rosier.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=LN_cpsbref1
I was out Saturday night with some friends at a wine tasting event. It was fun to go, but also interesting chatting with the class of people that were there. This was a private event and let’s just say cheese and crackers were not the menu.
It was amazing to me that many of these elite folks are indeed confounded by events in the ME nations. None of them expressed any understanding of “whose side we’re on.” Events there are triggering major instability in the world and the lack of direction is finally reaching down (or up) to the lower upper class. They are paying attention to the events and much more closely than I have seen in the past 5 years. Some were even admitting to tuning in to Fox News to get better informed, in some of those circles that is a huge faux pas.
These are the folks that 0bama has attacked with taxes, you didn’t build that, etc. To finally hear them waking up from the long stupor is actually concerning, because they have the clout to change the world.
What I’m finding among the disconnected not-quite-elite (but think they are) is an awareness that there could be anarchy in the US. They’re beginning to talk law and order. That started when the Ferguson-inspired protestors were allowed to disrupt just about everything without anyone stopping them.
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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, MONDAY, MARCH 30, 2015
BEA 15-14
* See the navigation bar at the right side of the news release text for links to data tables,
contact personnel and their telephone numbers, and supplementary materials.
Technical: James Rankin (202) 606-5301 (Personal Income) piniwd@bea.gov
Harvey Davis (202) 606-5302 (Personal Consumption Expenditures) pce@bea.gov
Media: Jeannine Aversa (202) 606-2649
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS, FEBRUARY 2015
Personal income increased $58.6 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $54.2 billion,
or 0.4 percent, in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)
increased $11.8 billion, or 0.1 percent. In January, personal income increased $61.8 billion, or 0.4 percent, DPI
increased $61.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, and PCE decreased $28.5 billion, or 0.2 percent, based on revised estimates.
Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in February, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent in January. Real PCE decreased
0.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.2 percent.
2014 2015
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
(Percent change from preceding month)
Personal income, current dollars 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4
Chained (2009) dollars 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.2
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars 0.4 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.1
Chained (2009) dollars 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 -0.1
FOOTNOTE._________
NOTE. Monthly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified.
Month-to-month dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Month-to-month percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are not annualized. Real estimates are in chained (2009) dollars.
This news release is available on BEAs Web site at www.bea.gov/newsreleases/rels.htm.
__________________
Compensation
Wages and salaries increased $23.9 billion in February, compared with an increase of $47.3 billion in January.
Private wages and salaries increased $21.9 billion, compared with an increase of $44.2 billion. Government
wages and salaries increased $2.1 billion, compared with an increase of $3.1 billion. Pay raises for federal
civilian personnel added an additional $0.6 billion to the change in government payrolls in February; pay raises
for federal civilian and military personnel added $2.2 billion to government payrolls in January.
Supplements to wages and salaries increased $5.2 billion in February, compared with an increase of $8.4 billion in January.
Other personal income
Proprietors’ income decreased $7.0 billion in February, compared with a decrease of $11.7 billion in January.
Farm proprietors’ income decreased $6.3 billion, compared with a decrease of $6.4 billion. Nonfarm proprietors’
income decreased $0.7 billion, compared with a decrease of $5.3 billion.
Rental income of persons increased $3.9 billion in February, compared with an increase of $1.8 billion in January.
Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) increased $19.7 billion,
in contrast to a decrease of $4.1 billion. Personal dividend income increased $25.3 billion, compared with an increase
of $1.6 billion.
Personal current transfer receipts increased $15.9 billion in February, compared with an increase of $28.7 billion
in January. In January, a 1.7-percent cost-of-living adjustment to social security benefits and several other federal
transfer payment programs added $16.7 billion. Also in January, other government social benefits was boosted $5.3 billion,
primarily reflecting health insurance premium subsidies paid in the form of tax credits to enrollees of the Affordable
Care Act exchanges. For additional information, see the FAQ on How will the Affordable Care Act affect BEAs measure
of personal income and outlays? at www.bea.gov.
Contributions for government social insurance — a subtraction in calculating personal income — increased $3.0 billion
in February, compared with an increase of $8.5 billion in January.
Personal current taxes and disposable personal income
Personal current taxes increased $4.4 billion in February, compared with an increase of $0.3 billion in January.
Disposable personal income (DPI) — personal income less personal current taxes — increased $54.2 billion, or 0.4 percent,
in February, compared with an increase of $61.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, in January.
Personal outlays and personal saving
Personal outlays — PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments — increased $14.2 billion
in February, in contrast to a decrease of $25.4 billion in January. PCE increased $11.8 billion, in contrast to a decrease
of $28.5 billion.
Personal saving — DPI less personal outlays — was $768.6 billion in February, compared with $728.7 billion in January.
The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 5.8 percent in February,
compared with 5.5 percent in January. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts
with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth,
go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/nipa-frb.asp.
Real DPI, real PCE, and price index
Real DPI — DPI adjusted to remove price changes — increased 0.2 percent in February, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent
in January.
Real PCE — PCE adjusted to remove price changes — decreased 0.1 percent in February, in contrast to an increase of 0.2 percent
in January. Purchases of durable goods decreased 1.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.7 percent. Purchases of motor
vehicles and parts accounted for most of the decrease in February. Purchases of nondurable goods increased less than 0.1 percent
in February, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent in January. Purchases of services increased 0.1 percent, compared with an
increase of 0.2 percent.
The price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent in February, in contrast to a decrease of 0.4 percent in January. The PCE price
index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in February, the same increase as in January.
The February price index for PCE increased 0.3 percent from February a year ago. The February PCE price index, excluding food
and energy, increased 1.4 percent from February a year ago.
2014 Personal Income and Outlays
Personal income increased 4.0 percent in 2014 (that is, from the 2013 annual level to the 2014 annual level), compared with an
increase of 2.0 percent in 2013. DPI increased 3.8 percent, compared with an increase of 1.0 percent. PCE increased 3.9 percent,
compared with an increase of 3.6 percent.
Real DPI increased 2.5 percent in 2014, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in 2013. Real PCE increased 2.5 percent,
compared with an increase of 2.4 percent.
Revisions
Estimates have been revised for October 2014 through January 2015. Changes in personal income, in current-dollar and
chained (2009) dollar DPI, and in current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar PCE for December and January — revised and as
published in last month’s release — are shown below.
Change from preceding month
December January
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
(Billions of dollars) (Percent) (Billions of dollars) (Percent)
Personal income:
Current dollars 45.3 48.9 0.3 0.3 50.8 61.8 0.3 0.4
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars 37.3 40.3 0.3 0.3 52.6 61.5 0.4 0.5
Chained (2009) dollars 62.1 65.3 0.5 0.5 103.4 109.8 0.9 0.9
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars -35.7 -20.2 -0.3 -0.2 -18.9 -28.5 -0.2 -0.2
Chained (2009) dollars -7.3 7.5 -0.1 0.1 32.9 22.3 0.3 0.2
BEA’s national, international, regional, and industry estimates; BEA news releases; and related articles in the Survey of
Current Business are available for free on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov. The entire historical time series for these
estimates can be accessed in BEA’s Interactive Data Application at www.bea.gov/itable/. Stay informed about BEA
developments by signing up for our email subscription service or following us on Twitter @BEA_News. You also can
access BEA data by registering for our Data Application Programming Interface, or API. (www.bea.gov/API/signup/index.cfm).
BEA’s news release schedule is available at www.bea.gov/newsreleases/2015rd.htm.
* * *
Next release April 30, 2015 at 8:30 A.M. EDT for Personal Income and Outlays for March
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The BLS goes a long way to keep their research/rawdata open for inspection so maybe we can say their numbers are pretty good. The output still gets distorted by the press (tootin' the misleading unemployment rate) and the input from the notoriously secretive Census Br. can slant stuff, but the hard numbers usually end up speaking for themselves. When I want to know how many people lost jobs and are still out of work I just subtract the number of employed from the working age population.
Seems that what we got is good news (this past year we've not gotten any worse) and bad (still no relief for 18 million applicants).
Dang! tx fer the heads up on the fact that the data’re out an hour before opening. Off hand they’re looking good —to me at least, futures traders seem put off...
“I thought that 2015 was going to be the year”
Recall how many times Obambi dictated delays cuz of elections etc ? April 15th this year hasn’t given out all its surprise yet? Altho I recall the IRS has screwed up,was it, 80 million folks thru some kind of error..More surprises for at least 80 mllion
Sheesh ! I think that upward curve was at the same time that gal shouted on TV she was so happy cuz now she won’t hafta worry bout gasoline and mtg payments ? Guess she and all her kin quit working huh ?
Not long ago I was at a Gas Station and the clerk mentioned something of International Headlines to a gentleman standing next to me....he commented and then I joined in to see how much they knew and how far this might go.
The clerk was simply aware.....the gentleman standing there carried on and on with me as we shared what we knew. Which was not only interesting to us both but in the process the clerk was all ears and very much interested to know more.
The gentleman was with a local Architectural Firm. I think just conversing when opportunity presents itself is as much for the parties speaking as those who are listening as they speak.
Healthy pace of job growth?
WTH?
Yeah, we hear that a lot from the left. It's like a guy fall's in a deep hole and when he's half way back up out of it someone says "wow, he sure is moving up now!"
Good morning and happy last day 'o the month! Metals sank a bit yesterday to a support level from previous months (gold'n'silver now at $1,185.25 and $16.68) while stocks made a solid advance above the psychological 50-day moving average --but in indecisive volume. This morning's futures are down and falling and with 2 hrs before opening they see stock indexes -0.52% and metals -0.10%.
Econ reports this morning are just Case-Shiller 20-city Index, Chicago PMI, and Consumer Confidence. News--
Guess what? America's best savers aren't wealthy
Oil drops to $55 as Iran nuclear talks intensify
- O Creates Anti-Bank Rumor for Shakedown Groups
--and threads:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/economist-sell-stocks-six-months-120503963.html
FYI, I'm back home for about a week after traveling around for about 4 months. Missed Chgo. ; )
Maybe we should buy some Chicago muni bonds.
Expert: Billions in Chicago Bonds Pay for Literally Nothing
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3274159/posts
Ah. So a hospital janitor who dropped out of college is telling us what to do with our life savings. Sounds good!
Missed Chgo. ; )
I still do, but in a couple months I'll get to visit my daughter & family there...
Happy April Fool's Day! Both stocks and metals sagged yesterday as indexes posted another distribution day (count: 8 for S&P and NASDAQ) and gold'n'silver settle toward intermediate support levels at $1,182.70 and $16.63. After yesterday's surprise leap in consumer confidence (an optimistic 101.3 v. expected 95.5) we now get a bigger pile of business stats:
MBA Mortgage Index
ADP Employment Report
ADP Employment Report
ISM Index
Construction Spending
Crude Inventories
Auto Sales
Truck Sales
Elsewhere:
Thanks e.p.!
;)
June is a great month to be in Chicago. How long are you staying?
Markets | Yesterday | Today's Futures | |||
metals | gold & silver bounced up to $1,204.20 and $16.98 | -0.69% and now trading down a % | |||
stocks | NASDAQ & S&P -0.4% raising distribution count to 9. Upside: volume was below avg (tho up) and some losses were recovered. | -0.36% |
Well buckaroos, things're sure looking grim at the O.K. Corral this morning, but don't forget today we're formin' up a posse:
Challenger Job Cuts
Initial Claims
Continuing Claims
Trade Balance
Factory Orders
Natural Gas Inventories
--and tomorrow the unemployment rate's come'n to the rescue with a new low like it always does. This movie seems familiar, isn't it the one where markets plunge and then IBD declares "market in correction" which automatically begins a two month run-up? Related theads:
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