The NY Times reporting on the battle in Tikrit today, said
that:
“large explosions rattled the windows of the Salahuddin Operations Command building as bombs dropped by unseen aircraft from the coalition brought satisfied smiles from the assembled military men.”
and also:
“the American-led coalition began bombing on Wednesday, with explosions heard in the city as often as twice a minute at night... “There is a plan, and we are going as planned,” said Lt. Gen. Riyadh Jalal Tawfiq, the commander of Iraqi Army ground forces.””
Apparently, Saddam’s palace complex in Tikrit is not only strong enough to withstand Iranian rockets and common artillery, it is also connected by a series of tunnels, which has allowed ISIS to shift around, protected and undetected. America has bunker busters able to destroy both the palaces and tunnels - and knows them well, after having had troops stationed in them for years.
So I would expect that a command center run by Americans has those Jihadis under constant observation and electornic monitoring. And that they have a deliberate plan to take them apart in steps - denying them mobility, attacking their command and control, destroying their food, water, sewage, ammo, vehicles, electricity - perhaps even their air in some instances - all while inflicting a steady stream of killed and wounded, while not letting them sleep at night.
They have had three fitful nights of bombing, and probably would have trouble doing simple math by now, much less coming up with any good plans. They will be moving slower, firing less accurately, and start making stupider mistakes. The walking dead.
The Shia militias, or popular mobilization units, which have conducted extra-judicial reprisals against Sunni ISIS supporters and former Ba’athists (and many bystanders), which amounted to a kind of ethnic cleansing over the last few months (as well as in years prior); have been pulled from frontline engagement before the American bombing, replaced by regular Army - holding ISIS in place and picking off any heads that poke up.
The Iraqi Government is bringing forward a large force of Federal Police (more like paramilitary Carabinieri than beat cops) to reestablish civilian control in the liberated city, but the militias are standing close by like slavering wolves, ready to rush in for pillage and payback after the bombing does its work.
A lot individuals in the Shia militias are recent recruits, honestly responding to the ISIS threat to the Holy sites of the Shia, and to their families. Such guys are subject to strong emotions and are just not well trained or disciplined. The leadership of these militias however, are professional gangsters and ambitious politicians, eager to murder their opponents and eliminate Sunni influence by any means.
Iranian intelligence and some of their allied militias have long lists of the names and addresses of political opponents (and even veterans of the Iran/Iraq), to hunt, kill and burn out of town. If they do this to Tikrit, as they have been doing to the other villages as they advanced, than the Sunni civilians in Mosul will know that it is do or die for them, and resistance could be fierce this Summer, during the culminating Battle of Mosul.
The Summer of Death.
Very informative, thanks for such detail.
Unfortunately on the ground this is an Iranian led Shia force with some Sunnis but the US role is merely showing up with some air support. At least that is how it is being viewed by the Iraqi.