It is a bloody mess there for sure - a tragedy.
I think that Ukraine is bankrupt now. That could be a factor driving a settlement.
Domestic politics in both countries might also shift in a big way from the costs of the war.
It's a combo of not wanting to get killed and perhaps hoping to benefit from Russia's immense natural resources if the two countries merge*. Until Ukrainians show they are willing to fight and die in large numbers, the West will be largely hands-off. It took 100K dead on both sides in Syria within a year before Uncle Sam started making noises about supplying the rebels. A year after hostilities commenced, the death toll in the Ukrainian conflict is under 10K. This is more a shoving match rather than an all-out knock-down conflict.
* Without oil and gas, Russia's GDP per capita would be pretty close to Ukraine's.