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When you go state by state in the primary system for 2016...there are three obvious facts.

1. No candidate will get enough votes on the primary system to carry the convention vote in the first round...too many divisional votes and one/two-state wonders (Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie). The convention this time around will be a major negotiation point about the number two or number three guy and he handles his representatives.

2. Scott Walker has the inside straight. He’ll likely win in Iowa to some minor degree (marginal win over Cruz). SC will be a Cruz win with Walker closing in. By the end of January, Jeb Bush will be more or less out of the big picture.

3. Debate-wise, Cruz and Walker are four-star guys who will carry each debate to the ninth degree. This is where guys like Christie and Bush will falter and start to show issues/problems.

Finally, Carly Fiorina is this wild card in the whole thing. I could see her carrying three states by the convention, and probably holding the VP card. Maybe Cruz figures in as the attorney general in the end. One has to ponder about the result of having a Walker/Fiorina presidency and having Cruz around for eight years as Attorney General. Maybe Cruz’s ultimate angle is four years as AG, then gets a nod toward the Supreme Court. Remember Taft coming back later...his dream job was always at the Supreme Court. It wouldn’t surprise me if Cruz is thinking the same way.