Most of this may as well be in Hebrew for me. Is Bibi favored to win?
I think that whatever government follows the election, it will be a coalition government; so you have to lump together parties to get to a plurality or majority. That usually doesn’t happen in these articles, as you have to have detailed information on each party’s stance and likelihood of coalition partnership. Just my sense of what this article can’t do.
Israel has a complicated electoral system. There are no districts; everyone in the country votes for a political party, and each political party gets a percentage of the seats in parliament equal to its percentage of the vote. The result is that no party ever wins anything close to a majority, and every government in Israel's history has been a coalition.
The current polling shows the moderate left (Zionist Union [the article uses its Hebrew name, "HaMachane HaTziyoni"] will get more votes than the moderate right party [Netanyahu's Likud]. But the problem is that there aren't enough other parties that would give ZU a parliamentary majority, even if it aligns with all of the hard-left parties and all of the centrist parties.
Further complicating the picture is the Arab parties (running as a joint party this year), who will probably get 10% of the seats, and they will not join any coalition with any of the mainstream Jewish parties, even ZU.
Netanyahu's current coalition is with the centrists and the hard right, but it looks like he will have a hard time putting that same coalition together again. The deciding factor will then be the Jewish religious parties. They tend to prefer the rightist parties to the leftist ones, but have in the past been willing to deal with anyone who will give lots of government funding to their religious schools and to exempt ultra-Orthodox religious students from the military draft. That last demand is very unpopular with the left, but also very unpopular with some segments of the right who see such widespread exemptions as a national security issue.
Netanyahu's current coalition doesn't include the religious parties, but if Likud loses seats to ZU, he may have to form a coalition with the religious parties to get a majority-- except that will in turn endanger his ability to include some of the centrist parties in his coalition. Alternatively, he might have to form a grand national unity coalition with ZU and the centrists, excluding the hard right, hard left and religious parties. But neither Netanyahu nor ZU really wants that.