Posted on 03/05/2015 7:10:55 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Mongols certainly did a number on the Persians. They were also the last invaders to conquer Baghdad - until the Americans in 2003.
Here are my thoughts on the 4 power bases you mentioned for determining the next leader in Iran.
1. The Mullahs. The current system is based on religious authority, so based on that, selecting the next supreme leader should be like selecting a Pope. But Khamenei, and Khomeni before him were really religious shams - politicians first (brutal dictators), with inflated religious credentials to serve their political ambitions. So being the best best Mullah or the Grandest Ayatollah is only helpful for the sake of apperarances - it is really brass-knuckle politics over the money. The Mullahs, mostly the Supreme Leader, administer the county’s Bonyads - tax exempt religious charities that are tools for cronyism/corruption, and dominate huge chunks of the non-oil economy. Major cash cows.
2. The Revolutionary Guards, called Pasdaran (Guards), or Sepah (Corps, or Army) as you pointed out, is separate from the regular military. They protect the Islamic political system against any potential coup, and work to spread it worldwide. They are now the third biggest force in the Iranian economy, after the state oil company and the religious “charities”. They control the domestic Basij militias who crack demonstrators heads for the regime, like bussed in union goons, riot police or brownshirts do elsewhere. They also control the Quds Force that commands their foreign militias, like the ones assaulting Tikrit. Gen Sulemanei leading that operation is actually a one star general in the Revolutionary Guards, which is commanded by a two star (Mohammad Ali Jafari).
Former President Ahmindeedanutjob, was a lifelong member of the Guards, and their power and influence grew rapidly during his administration. They are a serious power center/potential kingmaker.
3. Old Guard politicians - big name prominent families, former leaders and movement leaders. They are potential candidates if they can rally support. It is hard to say from the outside who might have the luck and talent to rise. I believe that it may have been Rafsanjani who proposed having a council rather than a single supreme leader after this one. Something like that might be adopted if there is enough of a standoff that no one can seize power directly.
4. The People. Iranians are the most pro-American population in the Middle East, except Israel. They chafe under this dictatorship and would love a change - they shouted it from the rooftops in the Green Revolution of 2009 after the Mullahs stole what was already a heavily rigged election, but were sold out by the French and Americans - followed by an oppressive wave of executions, incarcerations, torture and rape.
I would add that the regular military is always a potential source for a coup or coup support. They get policed heavily by the regime, but some have bucked or been purged before.
>>>”The Middle East for all its intrigues is like a Abbott and Costello act.”<<<
>>>”even those educated in the Eu or here and are intelligent fold completely when it comes to their Islamic teachings and what the Mullahs demand of them. It can be no other way for those who take Islam seriously”<<<
The “Middle East” is a big place, involves many countries and people.
For Iranians (even muslim ones) specifically, the most notable & visible anti-Shah & pro-Khomeini demonstrations (to begin with and outside Iran), came from ex-pat Iranians in the U.S.; many sent to the U.S. on scholarship paid by the Shah’s govt.
Since then, more than several prominent pro-khomeini, pro-revolution Iranians have been disillusioned. The revolution killing and exiling its own, at one time, diehard proponents.
Islam now plays a secondary role for at least 50% of Iranians (my guesstimate). Two other key factors remain. One is money and the second is fear. And the Iranian mullahs are very good at using both as leverage with Iranians.
If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
..................
Who will we send to the funeral?
the big O is sure to go.
>>>”Who will we send to the funeral?”<<<
James Earl Carter Jnr?
On that note, a reminder that when the Shah passed away in Egypt in 1980, only Richard Nixon attended the funeral in Egypt; of course Anwar Saddat & his family were there too.
Other Heads of State didn’t pay their respects, not even a representative; mainly because of either wanting to continue political, diplomatic & economic relations with the Khomeinist Islamic Republic (who had publicly executed hundreds of people by then), and/or fear of what the terrorist Khomeinist regime might do to them.
Says a lot about friends, foes & cowards.
Agree very much. Keep your eyes on Suleimani.
“pro-Khomeini demonstrations (to begin with and outside Iran), came from ex-pat Iranians in the U.S.; many sent to the U.S. on scholarship”
And very significantly, France. Long and strong relations between Persia and France. Iranians have even adopted some basic French words, like Merci , for thank you. When Khomeni came to Tehran after the overthrow of the Shah, he came from Paris on an Air France flight.
There is a significantly more widespread hard left culture in France than here. They are sometimes credited with originating much of that perverse culture and school of thought during the French Revolution, with the first of history’s many “Red Terrors”. It was to Paris that Karl Marx fled when he was first exiled for revolutionary coup activities, from Germany.
In the 1920’s, Ho Chi Mihn started his political career in the Fench Socialist Party. Michel Aflaq developed the philosophy of the Nazi-like Baath Party while a student in Paris (at the Sorbonne) in the 1920’s, but put his degree to work as a communist organizer for several years until Baathist “Arab Nationalism” became popular. In the 1930’s, socialism based on race rather than class (like the Baath) became popular indeed, when longtime communists like Benito Mussolini and many of the early founders of the National Socialist German Workers Party (Nazi) flocked to the new modern re-branding for collectivist dictatorship.
In the 1940’s, so many French were more sympathetic to their socialist brethren in the Nazi Party than to their own government, that many refused to fire their weapons at them, and the Nazis marched into Paris with unexpectedly few casualties and getting pretty good gas mileage. Vichy France tried to Out-Nazi the Nazis, instituting some racial and religious oppression laws in France even before Germany had them. French Nobel Prize winner Alexis Carrel, an early proponent of eugenics and euthanasia is sometimes cited as the originator of the proposal to use gas chambers for eliminating genetic undesirables, way back in the 30’s.
In the 1950’s, Paris was the hotbed for recruiting and training the cadre of the Khmer Rouge - including Pol Pot himself.
When the population of Iran rose up in widespread demonstrations after the mullahs stole the 2009 elections in Iran (The “Green Revolution”), French security launched coordinated raids on the offices of Iranian opposition groups in France, and seized their computers. The next week, the Iranians were rounding up the ringleaders and activists by the hundreds - lots were killed, imprisoned, tortured and raped.
If you are looking for external influences on politics around the world, don’t forget France. They have many areas of interest and influence. Lebanon, Syria and Iran are among them.
>>>”And very significantly, France. Long and strong relations between Persia and France.”<<<
Yes, in a way I agree. Actually, politically Carter wasn’t the only player, but a key one. Others at the time, during Carter’s ‘regime’ were James Callaghan and Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, respectively in the UK and France.
My parents were in Iran during the Shah’s era. The last decade or so anyway (late 1960s and throughout 1970s). At that time, the trend was to send Iranians (students) to the U.S., and in the second place the UK, not so much France. Though, in previous decades it was France.
>>>”When Khomeni came to Tehran after the overthrow of the Shah, he came from Paris on an Air France flight.”<<<
Yes, that’s because he was sent to exile to France, after Saddam came to power in Iraq and didn’t want Khomeini in Iraq. But Khomeini’s exile to France is more of an exception.
>>>”When the population of Iran rose up in widespread demonstrations after the mullahs stole the 2009 elections in Iran (The “Green Revolution”), French security launched coordinated raids on the offices of Iranian opposition groups in France, and seized their computers.”<<<
I missed this bit from your comment. Yes, the French did that because the “Iranian Opposition” to which you refer were most probably the MeK. An Islamist Marxist grp which were on the banned terrorist list of both the U.S. and EU. Their leader Maryam Rajavi is based in France.
Thank you for the additional detail on the 4 power centers. The situation is pretty much as I have imagined it based on what I knew 5 or 6 years ago. The situation with Suleimanei is interesting. If he has ambitions aside from front line fighting, he is in a pickle. Being in the field is good press, but if the political action is back in Tehran, it reduces his influence. If Khamanei dies soon he would potentially have the choice of moving on to Mosul, or going home to protect his base and make his moves. Of course, it all depends on the grandeur of his ambitions.
>>>”The situation with Suleimanei is interesting. If he has ambitions aside from front line fighting, he is in a pickle.”<<<
Nothing interesting about a pickle; veggie pickles taste good though.
BTW, Soleimani (correct phonetic spelling) was in Syria too, fighting ISIS long before “ISIS” became known to our inquisitive western and on-their-toes media. In that sense, sure, he is a pickle..
Hopefully, it’s clear, not talking about ‘in a pickle’ but a pickle (pickled, ie preserved).
As for Suleimanie you really have one terrorist organization assisting the Iraqi government get rid of another terrorist organization, Which could of course get real nasty if the right “spark” was thrown into the fire fights as they move foward.
How the “leadership” back home can control personal ambitions is highly questionable. Politicians always “think” they can control when in fact warriors and commanders IN the theater of war cannot always be contained nor controlled...Ukraine is a good example.
These lines of authority and influence are exactly what Netanyahu had in mind hen he told Congress:... “When it comes to Iran and ISIS, the enemy of your enemy is your enemy.”
”When the population of Iran rose up in widespread demonstrations after the mullahs stole the 2009 elections in Iran (The “Green Revolution”), French security launched coordinated raids on the offices of Iranian opposition groups in France, and seized their computers.”
This is what really motivated my rant about French influence. It seemed to me that this was a sudden turning point in the uprising, where the Guards suddenly had extensive by name rosters, and began arresting ringleaders by the hundreds per day - many were killed. Could just be coincidence, but it looked like a sellout to me. It seemed to me that Obama deliberately withheld support, but that the French Gov actively knifed them.
Really, I blame the left, rather than a country, for influence on what Iranians did in Iran. As you pointed out, lots of Iranians were US and UK educated. Khamenei attended university in the USSR.
I don’t know.... Green Revolution was primarily driven by islamic reformists of the current regime. Had little chance of succeeding. Some thought to use it as a platform for a more transformational change later. So long as hardline islamists exist in iran, even as minority, that transformation won’t happen. It requires a bigger more holistic change.
We shouldn’t discount the iranian intelligence agents. They are very well connected throughout the world, high & low places.
Actually many regime mullahs & their cohorts have investments & property in the U.S. & elsewhere. It’ll take real will & means to bring down their regime in iran. Things the west is not willing to implement nor has knowhow to do.
Mostly iran today needs a very strong, solid alternative leadership to rival the regime. It hasn’t surfaced yet. But in time the regime will go. It’s a very cyclical.
I noticed your name here. Do you’ve french heritage?
Suggestions re who to send to the
Funeral:
The Obozos, Clinton’s, Carters, Joe Biden, Kerry and the rats in Congress, who refused to go to Bibi’s joint speech.
Then cancel their return flights and revoke their citizenship.
Nice chatting with you Odds.
I am not French, my screen name is just made up.
Looking forward to a better government someday in Iran, and a better life for the people there...and a better government someday here too.
Thank you. Nice chatting with you too.
At the time, 2009, I was really hoping the “Green Revolution” would succeed. But as reports trickle in on the repression, I began to feel that perhaps Obama was wise not to meddle, because it would only cause more young people to emerge and get killed/imprisoned/identified. Since each year the dissatisfied youth population grows, waiting for the right time and leader seems logical. Meanwhile, after looking at Google, it appears alas that Khamenei while ill may not be on death’s door:
http://en.mediamass.net/people/ali-khamenei/deathhoax.html
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