Posted on 02/24/2015 12:58:49 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Impressive, but how long realistically can Walker resist the Ben Carson juggernaut?
Actually — no fooling — I think Carson’s numbers are bigger news here than Walker’s, even though he’s the first guy in the developing field to establish something of a frontrunner status.
Walker is climbing fast in the polling because of his appeal to the most conservative elements of the Republican electorate. Among ‘very conservative’ voters he leads with 37% to 19% for Carson, 12% for Bush, and 11% for Huckabee. Bush has a similarly large lead over Walker with moderates at 34/12…the problem for Bush though is that there are two times more GOP primary voters who identify as ‘very conservative’ than there are ones who identify as moderates.
Bush is really struggling with conservative voters. Among ‘very conservative’ voters on this poll, just 37% rate Bush favorably to 43% with an unfavorable opinion. By comparison Carson is at 73/2, Walker at 68/3, and Cruz at 68/8 with those folks…
The struggles Bush is having with some Republican primary voters don’t seem to have anything to do with his brother’s legacy. George W. Bush has a 74/21 favorability rating with them, and the closest any of this year’s candidates get to that is a 56% favorability for Mike Huckabee. And the former President has plenty of credibility with conservatives- among those rating themselves as ‘very conservative’ his favorability is 81/14 compared to his brother’s 37/43. It’s Jeb’s record on certain issues rather than his last name that is causing his issues.
Yup. Being George W. Bush’s brother is a liability in the general election. In the primary, it’s probably either a small asset or neutral. Jeb’s problem in getting past Walker is that he’s seen as a true amnesty warrior, a dissident on the hot button of Common Core, and a guy who seems to enjoy boasting to his media friends that he won’t pander to the conservative rabble in the name of winning an election. Even so, he’s still much more popular than Chris Christie, who’s dunzo with a 28/45 favorable rating among Republicans overall and a 33/38 rating among moderates, his supposed base. (Among conservatives he’s at 20/61.) If he ends up running anyway, it’ll be because he has even more blind faith in his ability to win over voters on the stump than Ted Cruz has.
Speaking of which, how does Ben Carson continue to poll so well when there are more seasoned social conservatives like Cruz in the mix? Carson has a high media profile thanks to his Fox segments and he’s had grassroots buzz over the past two years, but the same’s true of Cruz. He’s a senator (from Texas!), he’s on Fox regularly, he proved his conservative bona fides in taking withering fire while trying to block ObamaCare’s implementation, even at the price of a government shutdown, and he’s probably the most polished speaker in the field — and yet Carson has more than three times his support here. What happened? The Carson balloon will eventually deflate but the more plausible social conservatives in the field simply cannot have this guy sticking around with some respectable level of support (say, 10 percent or so) in Iowa. It may well be the margin of victory, denying Cruz or Huckabee or even Rubio or Walker the votes they need to eke out a win. Why aren’t the numbers for Cruz and Carson reversed? I’m asking earnestly. I can’t figure it out.
While we’re on the subject of niche social-con candidates, though, here’s a pair of fun data points from the PPP poll:
Huckabee’s been giving interviews lately about his prospective candidacy claiming he knows that this time he can’t afford to be pigeonholed as the “Christian” candidate. Good luck with that, big guy.
Incidentally, fully 57 percent of Republicans polled think Christianity should be the national religion of the United States, Establishment Clause or not. Second look at conservative atheists going third-party?
IA and NH are in 11 months.
They are ridiculous, but they serve for the media to gather and store ammunition for the primaries.
RE: In my view Ivy Leaguers and especially Ivy League lawyers are the #1 cause of destruction of the Republic since 1932 and Franklin Roosevelt.
“I would rather be governed by the first 2000 names in the Boston phone book than by the 2000 members of the faculty of Harvard University.” — Yale Graduate, William F. Buckley Jr.
Are you kidding? Today, that's a PLUS not a negative! Given the legendary liberalized propaganda poured into the minds of students from cradle to post grad it's a foregone conclusion that some contamination has to have taken hold somewhere deep. It's been going on since the 1980's at least at the university level, long before that in the Ivy Leagues. At least Walker won't be making appointments directly from the membership lists for the Council on Foreign Relations! That's whose got to be crapping their pants right now with this poll. Those guys will be working round the clock to grind Walker into dust. It may well be for the very first time before or since Ronald Reagan that they won't have a lock on a POTUS from both parties.
I oppose Huck because he’s a fiscal liberal.
“conservative rabble” So now I am part of a rabble.
rabble noun
1 a rabble of noisy youths: mob, crowd, throng, gang, swarm, horde, pack, mass, group.
2 rule by the rabble: common people, masses, populace, multitude, rank and file, commonality, plebeians, proletariat, peasantry, lower classes; derogatory hoi polloi, riffraff, (great) unwashed, (common) herd, proles, plebs; humorous sheeple. military veteran, bible believing, scary looking black gun packing white guy, constitution loving patriot. ANTONYMS nobility.
LOL..... Folks better start getting very frightened that I, and people like me continue to exist.
Cruz 2016 ~Imagine and remember what we once were.~
Saw Dr. Ben in person last night at a high school here in the oil patch. A capacity crowd braved ice and cold to hear him talk for an hour off-the-cuff standing on stage.
The first part of his message was mainly a plea for American’s to wake up to recognize that a near majority are uneducated as to American history and current affairs (remember Leno’s Jay-Walking segments) and what individuals are capable of when given guidance at a young age (home schooled, private, schools, charter schools over public schools) but without it an entitlement mentality is created. The second part of message was that individuals with vision are often stopped with government red tape, regulations, and high tax consequences with success. And third, our children and grandchildren are stuck with debt that will drag us down indefinitely.
He definitely has an anti-Washington stand saying too many bureaucrats are preventing continuation of the American dream. He didn’t broach his possible candidacy and questions from the audience focused on advice for young people to be successful.
Walker needs to come up with a coherent position on illegal immigration. He’s all over the place now. He should say that we the public doesn’t trust Washington on border security, and we need to build a fence, secure the border, and have strict enforcement of employment laws first. Once that’s done in a few years we can see where we are and decide what to do with those already here. That’s the only thing I can think of that will get grass roots support without driving away all the big Chamber of Commerce type donors.
...and a statist social engineering type.
So, I guess you’re not supporting Ted Cruz; because he’s both a lawyer and an Ivy League person.
Too bad .. NO CRUZ YOU LOSE
I won’t vote for a lightweight who thinks 2nd amendment rights should be decided by local governments.
I have a feeling Scoot Walker could understand conceptually what Reagan did to win back to back elections in some of the most incredible landslides ever (the guy won California, Mass and NY for goodness sake!) and could actually think, “You know, I think actually trying that, for once, just may actually work!”.
The wretched cynic part of me feels that having Scott Walker win the nomination would be tantamount to winning a powerball mega million lottery and a private island fortress. How I would love to be proven wrong here.
I am very disappointed in Scott Walker’s recent response To Rudy Giulliani’s statement about believing Obama does not love America.
In a story covered by Drudge as the banner headline, Scott Walker gave the following replies in response to questions about Giulliani’s statement:
“To me, this is a classic example of why people hate Washington and, increasingly, they dislike the press .... The things they care about don’t even remotely come close to what you’re asking about.”
“I would defy you to come to Wisconsin. You could ask 100 people, and not one of them would say that this is a significant issue.”
Walker apparently believes that the fact that we have a government, and administration (regime), and an Oval Occupant, all not acting with the best interests of America at heart, and not loving this country, is not of interest to his constituents in Wisconsin, which I find hard to swallow.
Evidently Walker does not realize the overall reason for his popularity in Wisconsin.
Ben Carson is nowhere near this number.
Most GOP members have never heard of him.
Losers all.
I am willing to let some single-issue items slide but Carson’s softness on 2nd Amendment rights will take a lot of repairing for my support.
PPP = Leftists’ Wet Dream Pollster
Ted Cruz has been running neck and neck with Walker .. and now suddenly he doesn’t even show up on this poll .. I’m not buying it.
Evidently Hot Air is TERRIFIED OF TED CRUZ .. Ooooooo!
California wasn’t the Democrat hacienda it is today. Reagan couldn’t get elected here now.
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