I don’t see this being the existential threat to Obamacare most do. If the SCOTUS rules that only state exchanges can qualify for subsidies, then each state will either set up a subsidy, pronto, or have tens of thousands of angry people beating the statehouse doors down because without it they can’t afford the insurance. It doesn’t automatically mean Obamacare is dead, and puts the issue in the state’s lap. And governors and state legislators certainly do not have the guts to stand up and to tell their constituents, “well, I guess you’re just screwed for living in this state, then...”.
“If the SCOTUS rules that only state exchanges can qualify for subsidies, then each state will either set up a subsidy, pronto, or have tens of thousands of angry people beating the statehouse doors down because without it they can’t afford the insurance. It doesn’t automatically mean Obamacare is dead, and puts the issue in the state’s lap.”
The problem BB with your “solution” is that the states don’t have the money to front the subsidies, and the ratio of gibbsmedats to taxpayers in states w/o State Exchanges makes your argument less plausible. Because the vast majority of the taxpaying voters of those states will tell their leaders: “Tell those freeloaders it’s tough $hit,” which will handily trump those who “yell they are being screwed.” Very nearly all the state exchanges are in blue states where the subsidies are not an issue (until FUBOCare goes under).
I think you’re going to be proven wrong on that because my understanding is that by not setting up an exchange a state will automatically exempt all of its citizens who have employer-paid plans from being subject to the employer mandate. This will enable them to keep their current plans because their employers will not be under pressure to drop their plans. That group is a hell of a lot bigger than the group that will lose subsidies, subsidies that they weren’t entitled to in the first place.
Furthermore, most of those states are GOP-run and some provisions will likely be made to fold Obamacare recipients into other state-run plans.
“then each state will either set up a subsidy, pronto”
Except for the states like Oregon and others that already TRIED to set up their own state exchanges and failed miserably even though they spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying.