Posted on 01/30/2015 3:46:14 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
As the 2016 GOP presidential primaries get closer, many conservatives have been growing increasingly hopeful that this will be finally the year they determine their party's nominee.
It's a tall order. The Tea Party has shown it can push GOP politicians to the right and win one-off Senate primaries. But taking on the establishment in an expensive, months-long slog of primaries and caucuses across the country is a more difficult proposition. Even when Mitt Romney looked weak in 2012, the Tea Party didn't manage to coalesce around a viable alternative.
This time, things feel different — candidates like Scott Walker and Marco Rubio, who could appeal to Tea Partiers but also potentially win the general election, are considering bids. The establishment could have difficulty anointing one favored candidate if they're split among Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Mitt Romney. And in a recent post at the Mischiefs of Faction blog, political scientist Jason McDaniel of San Francisco State University posits that the Tea Party conservatives will eventually unite around one candidate: Walker.
But while this is an intriguing scenario, there are still reasons to be skeptical. The large field makes coordination difficult and may contain several candidates that appeal to distinctive factions of the right but turn off others. And there's that big question of which candidates are more likely to beat Hillary Clinton. Here are five obstacles that could, yet again, prevent the Tea Party from getting its way.
1) Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum could win Christian right support
Tea Party conservatives — which I'm defining broadly here, to include various conservative groups and voters who are frequently critical of the GOP establishment and aren't predominantly motivated by religious issues — are most successful in elections when they agree with the Christian right. When they differ on which candidate is best, the vote of the right is split and strange things can happen — like the plurality victory of Todd Akin in the 2012 Missouri Senate primary, a Christian right candidate who actually wasn't supported by Tea Party groups.
So the likely presence of both Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum in the race is a problem for the Tea Party. Both are proven vote-getters among the Christian right that the Tea Party and business wings of the GOP — and, likely, general election voters — have little love for. (Huckabee is despised by anti-tax groups like the Club for Growth, while Santorum wants to play up family values issues more than economics.) And in their previous runs for president, both stayed in the race for quite a while after most pundits wrote them off — and won several states.
The upshot of this is that, if Huckabee or Santorum proves popular among strongly religious conservatives again, any "anti-establishment" vote could be split among a Christian right candidate and a Tea Party candidate. And if either of these past Iowa caucus winners manages another early state win, he'll likely remain in the race for quite a while — helping prevent the rise of a Tea Party-backed challenger like Walker.
2) Rand Paul is an odd fit
When Rand Paul first took on the establishment in his 2010 run for Senate, he was frequently referred to as a Tea Party challenger. But by 2014, it had become "clearer and clearer that this [Tea Party] label doesn't really fit," Aaron Blake wrote last year. For the most part, Paul seemed uninterested in serving up red meat to the base — instead challenging favorite talking points ("amnesty is a word that's trapped us," he said last year), and emphasizing how the party has "to reach out to more people." And while Paul's votes remain quite conservative on most issues, he's frequently crossed party lines to work with Democrats.
During the 2012 primaries, Rand's father Ron Paul had a dedicated core of supporters — he won 21 percent of the vote in the Iowa caucuses and 22 percent in New Hampshire. The more mainstream Rand could build on those totals and win a plurality victory in an early caucus or primary. But what would happen next?
It doesn't seem impossible that the Tea Party could coalesce behind Rand Paul. But his personal style and occasional ideological deviations (especially on foreign policy) make him an odd fit. My view is that a strong showing by Paul would most likely lead to a split the anti-establishment vote (as with Huckabee and Santorum) — and make the ultimate victory of an establishment candidate more likely.
3) The vast number of candidates will make coordination difficult
Basically every Republican seems to be running for president. The people preparing to run include establishment favorites, rising stars, self-promoters, and has-beens — RNC Chairman Reince Priebus currently has a list of 24 potential candidates, as Dan Balz and Phil Rucker reported.
Many of these candidates may opt against a run and others might drop out before the Iowa caucuses due to lack of support — but the more candidates there are, the more difficult it will be for the Tea Party to coordinate around one. Possible candidates who will court the support of this wing of the party include Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry, and Mike Pence.
The question of when candidates drop out will be crucial to determining the Tea Party's success. Dave Weigel has written that the Tea Party could succeed by "minimizing possible spoilers and locating a white knight. It might take until South Carolina or Florida, but if only one candidate is left by then—a Ted Cruz, a Rand Paul, a Scott Walker—he’d be in a stronger position than any insurgent since Ronald Reagan in 1976."
Yet when there are so many candidates running, some may not be so amenable to dropping out quickly — especially those with anti-establishment dispositions. And if a Tea Partier misses the chance to make a splash by winning Iowa or New Hampshire, it may be too late. (Bill Clinton is the only modern presidential nominee who didn't win either of those states, but the Iowa caucuses were basically meaningless in 1992 because home state senator Tom Harkin was running.)
4) Immigration is a fraught issue
Unauthorized immigration is an issue that hugely matters to Tea Party voters. When Theda Skocpol and Vanessa Williamson interviewed Tea Party activists across the nation, they found that "immigration was always a central, and sometimes the central, concern" they expressed. It's the biggest hot-button topic that divides the GOP's elites from its base, and it was a factor in House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's primary defeat last year.
Yet many potential Tea Party favorite candidates have avoided or downright contradicted the Tea Party on this issue. These include establishment favorites like Jeb Bush. But also, Marco Rubio, once a Tea Party favorite who successfully challenged establishment favorite Charlie Crist, ended up co-authoring the Senate immigration reform bill — and losing the trust of the Tea Party right. Scott Walker, too — frequently posited as an electable figure the Tea Party could rally around — has flirted with support for legalizing the status of unauthorized immigrants. And Rand Paul worked with a pro-immigration reform group last year to try to pass a Republican bill — though he voted against the Senate's bipartisan compromise.
The one well-known candidate who's been most consistent and outspoken in his opposition to immigration reform is Ted Cruz. "Immigration is a highly salient issue on which Cruz can cut down virtually the entire field," Mickey Kaus of the Daily Caller writes. "If Cruz gets all the GOP's anti-amnesty voters while the other 27 candidates split the GOP's gotta-please-Latinos vote, he will win by a large margin."
5) Tea Party conservatives may not agree on who is electable
Yet the flip side of purity on immigration may be electability. After two terms of a Democratic president, many conservatives — including Tea Partiers — will surely be eager to find a candidate who can actually win the general election. A position on immigration that alienates Hispanics could complicate the GOP's electoral math in swing states like Florida. And candidates with other hard-right positions could alienate moderates more generally.
So if many Tea Party conservatives conclude that a certain candidate is unelectable, they might instead support one whose positions on the issues aren't quite what they'd like. Accordingly, enthusiasm for Cruz — seen as a far-right bomb-thrower — has been muted even among ideologically conservative elites. For instance, Jim Geraghty of National Review wrote this week that Cruz "will easily get elected President of Conservative America," but lists him as a second-tier candidate due to his lack of appeal to moderates.
But the establishment may face some difficulty arguing that their candidates are more electable. Of the current two favorites, one is the brother of an unpopular former president, and the other is a widely mocked general election loser. Plus, as several candidates will surely bring up, party elites called Ronald Reagan too conservative to win as late as March 1980 — and Reagan, of course, proved them quite wrong.
So it's too early to say what conclusions Tea Party conservatives will draw about electability — or whether they'll be willing to take a risk on a very conservative candidate. But the issue is yet another thorny problem that will confront the Tea Partiers as they struggle to get the presidential candidate of their dreams. We'll see how they manage to resolve it.
I’m not interested in ‘uniting’ around aministy walker. If we don’t enforce our immigration law there won’t be a conservative movement to unite around anything.
Asking us to support a man like that is asking us to take a poison pill. The truth is even Walkers accomplishments in a state that was ready for reform don’t make him a conservative, much less a man we need to rebuild our cause.
Tea Party’s BIGGEST problem is that they are not, in fact, a stand alone party, and have to deal with rotten, traitorous Republicans.
Finally, the freepers who have been worshiping Walker are beginning to be exposed to the reality he’s just another amnesty chump.
ONLY Cruz has stated ALL aliens MUST apply for citizenship in their own country - not from inside America where they are ILLEGAL.
1. Mitch McConnell; 2. John Boehner; 3...
Yes, Cruz, Rubio and the Castro brothers are all Latinos, but the media almost never refers to Cruz that way and when they do, they imply that he’s a “white Hispanic” like George Zimmerman. Wonder why?
What’re we gonna do, besides gabbing on the Internet, to make that happen?
I am not sure where that is coming from.
I have listened to clips and read some of Walkers statements on this and I did not find his position to be much different than Rick Perry's, when you try to do a summation of them..
It was my understanding that most Conservatives favor a rejiggered policy for those here illegally, but in general we will not even discuss it until the borders are secure. (at least that is my policy understanding)
My previous understanding, before Walker made the news, was that his understanding and mine were pretty much the same.
The electorate truth is, while Hispanics are culturally conservative they are also rather racist, whereas whites in this country have been so drilled against racisim all their lives we can easy vote for and support a man not of our color.
Running a self-identified Hispanic to carry the conservative cause lets us appeal to those racist votes without losing our own. This is the truth about Cruz, and Rubio’s power. A power that undercuts the Left’s racist political bating machine to appeal to that naturally conservative vote.
We can and must harness that power to have a true conservative movement, because of true racism among the minority community and most particularly the left.
George Zimmerman was also black, but that never made the news, did it?
Here is my thinking on the top 5 problems for the Tea Party. In no particular order.
1) Jeb Bush
2) Chris Christie
3) The RNC
4) The Media
5) Mike Huckster
The left doesn’t have to really engage the Tea Party. Just let other republicans do it in the primaries.
Money line - It,s too early.....
It’s my opinion that the biggest problem the Tea Party movement has is...
The RNC.
He had a republican State legislator given to him by a state so so economically strangled by decades by corrupt union policy that the stage was set.
I know they were still strong and quite capable of making an enormous amount of noise. They were basically a state funded political machine after all. But Wisconsin would not have gotten to that point if they were not ready. Walker is just the man with the balls to stand his ground and win the fight.
That alone I agree entitles him to considerations as so many of our politicians do not stand their Ground, example: Useless Chickens John and Mich. But that doesn’t necessarily make him the greatest.
You can be good at holding your ground but if that ground is not desirable. Say he believes in Aministry then that ground becomes a liability rather than an asset.
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