Unfortunately you are correct.
But there is a new path of hope.
For the first time in my life I actually see a chance for an Independent to win the White House and I see Ted Cruz as having that shot to win by running as an Independent.
First, a few facts: Independents made up 24% of the Electorate in 2012 but by 2014 they comprised a stunning 42%! (Look it up).
Second, Independents are not squishy moderates, they are persons that are fed up and distrusting of both political parties.
Third, Conservatives make up the majority of Independents.
Ted can continue to wear the GOP label but run as an Independent.
Here’s how Ted wins as an Independent:
60% of the Independents or 24% of the Electorate.
95% of the Conservative GOP Base or 20% of the Electorate.
53% of the Latino vote or 4% of the Electorate.
98% of the Blue Collar Perot demographic or 3% of the Electorate.
90% OF THE Reagan democrats or 2% of the Electorate.
Total 53% of the Electorate.
A few remarks:
1. Latinos voted 40% for Ted Cruz in the general election for TX US Senator.
2. Latinos tend to vote for Latinos first, and Party second.
3. Anti-GOP/Cruz democrat voting Latinos will stay home if Executive Amnesty is stopped (because of democrat empty rhetoric and ineptness).
4. The Blue Collar Perot voter has been pinpointed as the demographic that sunk Romney in 2012. These are very stubborn voters who will stay home unless an independent true conservative leaning candidate emerges and convinces them they are the real deal (they saw Romney as a liar).
5. The Reagan democrats will vote for a perceived moderate democrat if that’s what’s on the ticket but will crossover to a strong Independent if there is that choice. Such a strong Independent can wear the GOP label but must be viewed as outside the GOP Establishment.
A few remarks on how Ted increases his margin of victory from 53% to 55%:
1. Pro-Israel American Jews will back Ted strongly. Although they are small as a percentage of the Electorate, they are a large in influence.
2. Some GOP moderates sensing a GOP Establishment loss will cross over and vote for a GOP Independent candidate. The moderates are largely groups that feed at the government trough and desire continuity and stability. Ted will attract many of these via his strong stance on defense and NASA.
Thanks for writing that.
I'm liking it, I'm liking it.
Run as an anti-Republican Republican (but not a squishy Democrat-lite). There could wide appeal for such a thing.
It sounds crazy, but in truth (I think) it's brilliant.
And if a few Republicans could be honest with themselves about themselves being thoroughly detested by many potential swing voters...and posture as opposing Cruz in order to HELP the guy out --- that's the kind of cunning we need?
Or at least we need some kind of cunning other than the usual "here's how incumbents hold onto their elected office" intra-Party backstabbing -- which only serves to help the (more) Wrong Party.