Posted on 01/16/2015 5:46:55 PM PST by Lorianne
One day, it’s gold. The next, it’s equities. Most days, it’s crude. On Wednesday, it was copper. On Thursday it was the Swiss franc and Swiss stocks. And the move in those two makes those others look like minor-league hiccups.
While you were sleeping, all hell broke loose in Switzerland, as the central bank ditched its currency cap against the euro after four years and slashed interest rates to negative 0.75%. The Swiss franc is rallying wildly, while the Swiss stock market is cratering and U.S. stock futures are mostly on the losing side as investors figure out this latest shock to the markets
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
>> On Thursday it was the Swiss franc and Swiss stocks. And the move in those two makes those others look like minor-league hiccups.
Bullshit.
As long the chocolate don’t go away I am happy but please Swiss don’t make it so bad that chocolate won’t be made anymore
It seems to me that the next few months would be great for straddle options strategy.
Cocoa trees have a productive life of 20 to 30 yrs, as an average. Sadly, the bulk of the trees in Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana are past their midpoint, more so in Ghana. The supply problem is simple, and it is this: cocoa is absolutely NOT amenable to commercial farming techniques.
More than 70% of all cocoa produced for market is produced by what are typically called 'subsistence' farmers. They do not...and will not...change their ways for anything or anyone (you may recall their intransigence in 1999-2000 when they actually BURNT their own cocoa crops).
Worse, from a supply standpoint, there have become numerous OTHER crops which are more profitable to the farmer than cocoa, in all the cocoa producing regions.
Cadbury and Nestle are (haha) trying to implement programmes to induce the planting and tending of more cocoa trees. Perhaps they will succeed, but I for one shall bet against them. Cocoa is a very tricky crop (I shall spare you the details unless you expressly ask, ok).
The net of it all is this: supply WILL shrink over time unless the repopulation of trees proceeds. It may. Everyone wants choc, after all. Absent repopulation, cocoa prices will go MUCH higher over time, perhaps $1500/tonne over the next five years.
You can, personally, forestall this if you happen to live in a tropical or semi-tropical clime. If so, plant 2, 3, several cocoa trees. Not joking. The only trick to this is to plant them in semi-sun, a good deal of shade when they're just sprouts, then transplant them to sunnier soil as they mature. Talking some years, here, so pls be advised.
Best wishes to you, and FReegards, but future cocoa supply prospects just now are, frankly, terrible.
Somehow I smell a Soros behind this.
You would think with all the genetic work going on in agriculture they would be developing some trees that would grow outside their traditional climate.
Never mind the diseases, witch's broom and black pod and so forth, and never mind the pests (hey, bugs like cocoa just as you and I) such as capsid fly and brown borers and such, if the climatic and moisture conditions aren't pretty well spot on, cocoa trees don't grow well.
Perhaps the genetics chaps will find something, but, just between you and me...they'd best hurry up a bit.
FReegards!
You and me both.
Thanks for the interesting info.
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