Replies

A. The Prez event is 50 separate contests. As far as supporting any particular candidate, I would ask, “what state?” .... hard to support somebody who has no campaign in that state.

B. RS focused so heavily on IA that he had no campaign in NH until 5 days before primary day. And in ME, he refused to appoint any body as head of his campaign which made it IMPOSSIBLE to campaign for him. NOBODY spoke for RS at most MAINE caucuses because nobody was authorized to do so! If I were in IA, I would have gone for RS to defeat MITT.

C. In CT, there was an official straw poll 5 days after RS “suspended” ... the RS folks showed up and tried for votes ... Mitt won by 2 votes over Newt. The RS voters who wanted to stop MITT were beyond foolish that day.

D. Before y’all can nominate a conservative, the Bush-Romney wing needs to be DEFEATED. Only then will the field be opened up enough to consider an alternative. A two-step process. 1) Defeat the Insiders. 2) Nominate a conservative. (You cannot do #2 until after #1 is accomplished.)

E. See above. I will support whomever has the best chance to stop Romney/Bush in NH .... which I calculate to be Walker today. But if he develops no campaign there ... I find somebody else.

IN 1980, the insiders were divided.
1980 Bush vs. Reagan.
1988 Bush vs. Dole.
1996 Dole vs. the field. Dole almost lost it, even with full support of the insiders.
2000 Bush vs. McCain
2008 McCain vs. Romney
2012 Romney alone. Insiders united.
2016 ?

2016 is shaping up as a race with serious divisions among the insider crowd ... which provides an opportunity for grassroots to be the decider among the top few competitors. An opportunity that will be lost if the right is fractured into numerous candidates in most states.

2012 was hopeless from the start because the insiders were largely united around Mitt, especially after Perry imploded. Perry was the only one who could have pulled it off, in retrospect. But Mitt was ready to pulverize him with his specialized destroyer commercials.

Here's a nice map. Hopefully, some conservative candidate will hire a real campaign team for NH this year. Unlike Forbes2000 Huckabee2008 RS2012 Newt2012 ... all hired teams that were in over their head.