Yea... I now think we actually do have to go below $40 before it bottoms. Someone posted a chart the other day showing the range of Actual CASH COST of production. At $50, only about 2% of supply was below break even on this basis.
You have to get down to ~ $38 to get 10-15% of the supply below cash cost. That's probably the point that would be enough to really change the supply-demand balance. And, of course... the market is likely to over-shoot a bit.
The other thing I read that was convincing to me was: This effort by the US/Saudis to drive the price down is really a concerted effort to apply severe pressure primarily on Iran... to stop their nuclear program. And, also on Putin, to reign in his expansionism.
IF (and, that's a big IF) that's true. The Saudis won't care if it has to go down to $10 again.
There's GOING to be a bounce back... and, I want to be on it when it happens. But, I guess we have some more downside still to go.
Same here.