Posted on 01/01/2015 7:11:51 AM PST by blam
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph (UK)
January 1, 2015
America’s closed economy can handle a surging dollar and a fresh cycle of rising interest rates. Large parts of the world cannot. That in a nutshell is the story of 2015.
Tightening by the US Federal Reserve will have turbo-charged effects on a global financial system addicted to zero rates and dollar liquidity.
Yields on 2-year US Treasuries have surged from 0.31pc to 0.74pc since October, and this is the driver of currency markets.
Since the New Year ritual of predictions is a time to throw darts, here we go: the dollar will hit $1.08 against the euro before 2015 is out, and 100 on the dollar index (DXY).
Sterling will buckle to $1.30 as a hung Parliament prompts global funds to ask why they are lending so freely to a country with a current account deficit reaching 6pc of GDP.
There will be a mouth-watering chance to invest in the assets of the BRICS and mini-BRICS at bargain prices, but first they must do penance for $5.7 trillion in dollar debt, and then do surgery on obsolete growth models.
The MSCI index of emerging market stocks will slide another third to 28 before touching bottom.
The Yellen Fed will be forced to back down in the end, just as the Bernanke Fed had to retreat after planning a return to normal policy at the end of QE1 and QE2.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
My first post of the new year.
How many times will I make the mistake of using 2014 instead of 2015....
Obamacare repealed
Dow 20,000
Gold $300
.89 dollar to the euro.
(I don’t necessarily believe all that; the point is, self-serving prognostication is a game ANYONE can play!)
The dollar will do even better than the author predicts vs. Euro (1.08). Below 1.20 Euro it is straight down to 1.00 parity. It will happen this year.
Obamacare will never be repealed. The GOP doesn’t want it repealed.
>> Obamacare will never be repealed. The GOP doesn’t want it repealed.
Okay. So insert “GOP will be repealed” ahead of “Obamacare will be repealed”.
It’s wild-eyed new-years-day prognostication, FRiend! Go with the flow! :-)
>> Below 1.20 Euro it is straight down to 1.00 parity. It will happen this year.
That’s the spirit!
Nah.
Us Tea-Party folks will be rolled-over by the big GOP Republican RINO party.
We'll become depressed at what has happened to America and completely give up politics.
Sadly true. Boehner, McConnell and their lieutenants would need to be removed first.
2015 Will Be The Year Of Dollar Danger For The World
And 2014 was the year Ebola was to decimate large populations.
The cool thing about the professional-prognostication business is, you don’t actually have to be *right*. Your prognostications just have to resonate with some paying audience.
It’s a great gig if you can get it. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard managed to get it somehow.
Greece will have an election Jan 25, and the result will be that Greece want to continue to steal the tax money from other countries in order to “save them” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11319525/Greek-expulsion-from-the-euro-would-demolish-EMUs-contagion-firewall.html
Will there be a new Drachma? http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/12/31/prospect-of-a-grexit-has-implications-for-more-than-just-greece/
Trapped with no way out. Only one way to find out how much air a balloon can contain I guess.
Some of the gigs have consequences. I’m thinking of Dick Morris and the 08 election...
Has any recent journalist — at least, any journalist writing on economic affairs — been less reliable than Ambrose Evans-Prichard? I doubt it.
I’ll make prediction...interest rates won’t be normalized in my lifetime
I can play that game too, Tick. I say dollar will gain on the euro. Gold will slide, but not as much as you say. Happy New Year! :-)
1.29 on the euro.
AND...Malaysia Air 370 will be found!
I'm afraid it goes much deeper than that.
A majority of GOP Congressmen are reelecting these “leaders” year after year.
I knew the game up was up a month after Amnesty supporter Eric Cantor lost his primary, in large part because of his immigration policies.
The GOP House promptly replaced Cantor with Kevin McCarthy, who also supports Amnesty.
Almost nobody noticed, and, within the House, I'm not aware of anyone who even commented on that insanity.
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