U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m
Average US oil production in thousand barrels per day:
2000 - 5,822
2001 - 5,801
2002 - 5,744
2003 - 5,649
2004 - 5,441
2005 - 5,181
2006 - 5,088
2007 - 5,077
2008 - 5,000
2009 - 5,350
2010 - 5,482
2011 - 5,645
2012 - 6,497
2013 - 7,442
Your production numbers make a very good point.
Oil resources take around 5-10 years from the time the decision to develop is made until the oil starts flowing so there is time big lag involved
Plus the open interest/volume traded has hit a high in the last couple days. There are some big players trading oil futures contracts the last few days. Covering shorts and potentially going long.