Posted on 12/16/2014 4:17:43 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
“The eastern part of this district last elected a Republican in 1956”
By “eastern” I of course meant “western”, the Huntington area.
the area closest to Manhattan is always “Eastern”
just got my Christmas Card from Bruce Poliquin. Does that mean I’m an “insider”?
yes, he did say “Merry Christmas”, not Happy Holidays.
I think he is going to stick in that seat. He is brutally thorough on doing the grunt work. Not just his staff, the man himself.
What do the following counties have in common?
Camas, ID
Custer, ID
Dorchester, MD
Emmons, ND
Glasscock, TX
Haywood, TN
Osage, MO
Hint: They were the only (I think) counties outside of the Deep South, Florida, Virginia, and Arkansas to....
vote GOP for POTUS over 70% of the vote .... in every election since ....
“The other competitive CT seat”
I think CT4 and CT5 win the prize for most competitive seats where the DEM incumbent faced the least competitive campaign against them.
The GOPe in CT is nasty and vicious in primaries and then throw daisies at their opponents in Nov race. Their campaigns do not “compete”. The RINO 3-some of Shays Johnson and Simmons pulled out all the stops to keep their seats, but the latest folks have been polite and respectful in their approach with a minimal effort .... “no reason to get excited about a little election” ... the Au man is quantitatively oriented, but you haven’t dragged him into NFL threads?
I am learning to be COOL in response to the COLD shoulder local GOP. Most GOPers think of politics as an extention of business ... they don’t do anything that doesn’t benefit them DIRECTLY and immediately. The grossest example was the local GOP on the ground when Doug Hoffman ran in ‘09. His race captivated conservatives nationally, but the locals were obsessed only with the D.A. race and the Sheriff.
Nope, Haywood TN is a nasty little bugger, hasn’t gone GOP since 1972.
Hint #2, it’s nothing they’ve done recently
Hint #3, what they did was very atypical, outside of the deep south.
Vote for Carter in 1976 but for Bush in 1988?
FL-18 (the CD Patrick Murphy stole from Allen West) is more Republican than either CT-04 or CT-05 (Romney got 51.7% in FL-18 as compared to 44.0% in CT-04 and 45.3% in CT-05), yet gave Murphy a victory margin over Republican Carl Domino greater than the combined victory margins for Himes and Esty in CT-05 and CT-05, respectively.
As for football, I don’t follow it at all. Haven’t watched a game in years.
No, but you’re on the right track of thinking.
Still too recent. ;)
Got it: They voted for Kennedy in 1960 but for Goldwater in 1964.
Who is the delusional idiot? Someone who writes stories like this? Or someone who buries their head in the sand and says, "It's all good?"
I bet Domino supporters put 10 times the effort into winning in NOV than GOPers in CT4 and CT5 combined. The word “competitive” implies effort.
Compete: (Verb)
to strive to outdo another
listless: (Adjective)
characterized by lack of interest, energy
Correct, I was doing some research on most historical GOP counties for President and noticed Dorchester MD voted for Kennedy and Goldwater, I wondered how many others (outside the deep South) there could be. Several in southern VA, none in NC. 6 in ARK.
For the most part these 7 have all been GOP since.
Dorchester MD gave Clinton a plurality in 1996.
Glasscock TX voted for Wallace in 68, then GOP since.
Eamons ND voted for Carter in 76.
Haywood TN voted for Wallace, then Nixon, then rat ever since.
Here’s a presidential electoral trivia question for you:
Only two counties gave Ford over 60% of the vote in 1976 yet gave Romney less than 30% of the vote in 2012. One was Lamoille County, Vermont (95% non-Hispanic white, and 100% rural), which gave Ford 61.56% in 1976 yet gave Romney only 27.88% in 2012. What is the other county whose politics changed so drastically in those 36 years so as to vote less than 30% for Romney after having given Ford over 60% in 1976?
I was about to give up, my mind jumped to San Juan WA, Tompkins, NY but Ford was under 60% in both.
So I figured to be obscure enough it had to be in the South.
Hind, MS. (Jackson) 37% White now, I guess it was less Black back in the day huh?
Very impressive, Impy! I asked this question to a handful of the most knowledgeable political buffs in the country (people who are on a first-name basis with Michael Barone and sometimes e-mail with him on election nights), and not only did they not get it, they were very surprised to learn the answer.
Indeed, Hinds County, Mississippi (home of Jackson, the state capital and largest city in the state) gave Ford 60.46% in 1976 but gave Romney only 27.86% in 2012. Yes, Hinds County was a lot whiter back in 1976 than it is today, plus blacks voted at a far lower rate back then. Ford carried most Southern cities and suburbs (outside of Georgia, that is), but got blown out by Carter in rural areas in the South. Still, it was very impressive for Ford to have gotten over 60% in Hinds County over Carter (who carried Mississippi, albeit it narrowly).
Haywood TN stuck out at me since it is a Black majority county. At present, there are only two Black majority counties in TN (Haywood and Shelby). Curiously, both voted Republican for Senator and Governor last month (against desultory opposition).
Looking at MS, some of the vote swings have been wild since the 1970s (for that matter, some just in the past decade), which makes one wonder what has been happening in some of these counties demographically. Vicksburg’s Warren County, which was an island of sanity in the river counties moved in 8 short years from a 57% Dubya county to 51% for McCain and fell to Zero in 2012 (with 50.4%).
Warren and Benton County on the TN border were the only two to flip from McCain to Zero in MS (Benton’s was weird — demographically, it is 61% White, although ancestrally Dem, but once it went GOP and against Zero, seemed unlikely to move back as it did). Perhaps it was Willard’s decidedly anti-White working class attitude responsible for turning off such counties (then again, you’d have thought New England would’ve been more friendly towards him, and he barely moved the needle).
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