Posted on 12/16/2014 6:32:46 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Sounds impressive until you realize that Biden’s currently rocking two percent of the vote nationally in a Democratic primary involving Hillary and Elizabeth Warren. Speaking of which, Ben Carson against Hillary in North Carolina: Dead even at 44, which is two points better than Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee do against her.
The Romney/Carson last-men-standing primary debate before Super Tuesday will be epic, my friends.
Ben Carson leads the way for the Republicans with 19% to 15% for Jeb Bush, 14% each for Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee, 11% for Paul Ryan, 7% for Rick Perry, 5% each for Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, and 4% for Marco Rubio…
At least at this very early stage it looks like North Carolina will yet again be a swing state in 2016 if Clinton is indeed the Democrat nominee. She is very closely matched with all of her potential Republican opponents, leading Mike Huckabee and Chris Christie each by 2 points at 46/44 and 44/42 respectively, while tying Bush and Carson at 46% and 44% respectively. Those numbers show there isn’t a big electability difference between the Republican candidates at least at this point. We also tested Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren in head to head match ups with Bush and Carson, and they fare a good bit worse than Clinton. Biden trails Bush 47/42 and Carson 45/40, while Warren trails Bush 46/39 and Carson 44/37.
The fact that Carson is even registering in these polls, let alone leading them, is amazing. How’s he doing that? I’m tempted to say it’s because of his appearances on Fox News over the past year but Huckabee’s gotten a lot more airtime on FNC than Carson has and he’s a few points behind. There must be a strong grassroots effort there by the “Draft Ben Carson” PAC to drum up interest. That’s not surprising, if so — Vernon Robinson, the group’s political director, knows the state well as a NC native — but the fact that that grassroots outreach is working as well as it is does surprise me.
Now, you tell me. Who’s most likely to suffer from the Carson boomlet? Note the “very conservative” column:
Ted Cruz at nine percent while Carson is at 18? Given that Jeb Bush(!) and Mike Huckabee(!!) are outpolling him among the same demographic, let’s chalk that up to “very conservative” voters merely not knowing Cruz well enough yet to form an opinion rather than actively passing him over. Still, though — they know Ben Carson well enough to form an opinion? Huh.
This caught my eye too. Which number jumps out?
The only candidate to register above 20 percent in any age group is Carson, who pulls a quarter of senior citizens. Presumably they’re a key target of the “Draft Ben Carson” group, which makes sense — Carson spends a lot of time talking about faith and opposing political correctness and there’s no age group more comprehensively socially conservative than seniors. Some of that support will fade as the rest of the field starts campaigning and other candidates land on voters’ radars, but again, it’s instructive to look at Huckabee here. He’s a known quantity, having run for president once before and spent years with his own show on Fox. There’s no major politician in the country who’s spent more effort polishing his brand as a social conservative. And yet Carson’s nearly 10 points ahead of him among a group that should be easy pickings for Huck. (Huckabee is second among senior citizens behind Carson, in fact.) I still think Carson’s a single-digit candidate when everything shakes out, but could he play spoiler for a more formidable social con in the race like Huck or Cruz? A few months ago I’d have said “no way.” Let’s revise that down now to “probably not.”
One more data point. Of the four GOP candidates polled — Carson, Huckabee, Jeb Bush, and Chris Christie — only one of them has a favorable rating among fellow Republicans north of 65 percent. Ahem:
Good lord. Mike Huckabee won the war on women, at least in North Carolina.
Here’s Carson reaching out to his would-be base in a segment last week for David Brody and CBN.
Agree. Dr Carson needs to be part of the coalition backing the constitutional conservative candidate. That could possibly earn him a nice cabinet position and he can go from there.
Scott Walker is not in this poll, for that reason I find it suspect.
Newsmax TV was advertising a piece about Carson. It said that Carson was a reformed ‘radical’. [I don’t have Newsmax TV, so I only heard that promo.]
I would want to know more about Carson’s ‘radical’ history.
Carson recalls in the documentary the tremendous influence Ronald Reagan had in shaping his views:
“I used to be a rather radical left-wing person. And I started listening to him, and I started listening to the things he was saying, and they made so much sense. And I actually began to think about the world in a very different way.”
Armstrong Williams, a television station owner and media strategist who oversaw the documentary’s production, has been friends with Carson since the 1990s, when Carson appeared on one of Williams’ talk show.
*****
Not sure if this *documentary* goes into any more detail about Carson’s “rather radical left-wing” history.
Yes he is. And what? Are we the party of “me too” because we need a black on the ticket?
And Carson is so naive and/or full of himself he may not even recognize or care that he's being USED by dark GOP anti-conservative forces to skew the primaries.
Leni
Sounds like Newsmax is trying to be preemptive — get the bad out early enough that it may no longer have much impact.
Thanks for making my day (sarcasm). The silver lining is we can now focus on the positives of constitutional conservatism, as opposed to getting back in the Bushes.
RE: I can’t fathom anybody considering voting for nutjob Joe Biden. Any person who would do this is a fool in every sense of the word.
You mean the majority of those living in Delaware are nuts?
No matter what their various conservative-vs.-liberal ideologies may be, there are two type of Republicans running for the 2016 presidential nomination — tortoises and hares.
So far, Ben Carson is the only tortoise. He’s willing, and apparently happy, to work at the grassroots level, out of the spotlight, winning hearts and minds through his speeches and books, and gaining contributions through his PAC.
On the other hand, there are many, many hares in the 2016 race, those seeking the spotlight one way or another, or seeking funding from wealthy donors.
So it’s Ben Carson vs. many rivals who are splitting the hare vote. That’s why he’s winning in the polls and is likely to continue to keep amassing supporters until he has a sizable enough lead to win the primaries...and then the presidency.
“Isn’t Carson a gun grabber?”
Yes
Carson is not going to be the nominee. Though if he hangs around long enough he could help guarantee that either Bush or Romney is.
You say nuts...I say fools.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.