...despite the Obama administration and American allies alike warning that it could lead to violence...Does anyone really believe this would be coming out if the POTUS didn't want it to come out?
Yup. Iirc the Executive Branch has the ability to prevent the release of something like this under classification laws. I don’t believe that the Congress has unilateral declassification authority, at least not without a specific piece of dedicated legislation. That the President could then sign or veto.