Posted on 12/08/2014 7:59:41 AM PST by SandRat
FORT HUACHUCA — There are two sayings which today’s Army is striving to overcome.
One is that past is prologue, or we’re always reliving over and over what has already happened.
The other is when it comes to war, military leaders are always ready to fight the last one.
But Maj. Gen. Robert P. Ashley said the new Army Operating Concept is “a very good job of laying out what the (future) operational environment is going to look like.”
And while today’s world is already complicated, “it’s going to become more complex,” the commander of the Army Intelligence Center of Excellence and Fort Huachuca said last week.
Some of the complexity will involve what may seem like science fiction fodder for a movie, TV or video game script.
But Ashley told the Herald/Review future planing will involve “mega-urban areas,” noting such large urban areas, each consisting of more than 10 million people, will involve 60 percent of the world’s population around 2040.
The time to think forward is now, he said.
And part of that movement is a conference of Army intelligence leaders and others which starts today on the fort, Ashley told the Herald/Review during a nearly hour-long interview.
The last time the Army had a forward thinking concept was in the 1980s concerning how it would fight a Land-Air Battle with the country’s major enemy, the Soviet Union, a time when America and its NATO allies were outnumbered, the general said.
Fortunately, the Land-Air Battle concept with the Soviet Union did not come about, but what did was a global change in which potential enemies continue to develop in an ever-changing world.
Complicated now complex
Things are changing and in the future, “we are finding ourselves in an environment where there are a lot of unknowns … you don’t exactly know who the enemy is going to be,” Ashley said.
Last year former Secretary of Defense Bob Gates spoke at an Association of the United States Army dinner in Washington, D.C. Gates said in the 1960s future battles and enemies were forecast and “we’ve never once got it right.” That statement “resonated with me,” said Ashley.
Any future war cannot fall into not getting it right before it occurs, Ashley said.
In America’s future there will be a variety of conflicts and being prepared for them so as not “to be overwhelmed,” is a reality for today’s military leaders and to those they lead, the general said.
In the Cold War era, especially immediately after the Vietnam experience, the United States Army put high emphasis on five weapon systems, two helicopters, the Apache and Blackhawk, a missile system called the Patriot, the M1 tank and the Bradley fighting vehicle, the general said.
But future opponents already are different, Ashley said.
What is obvious is America’s enemies do not want to go “head-to-head with us” but rather a “non-state actor can buy weapon systems emulating what we have” even if the items are protected by copyright, so “you can’t assume that technology is going to be protected,” he said.
When it comes to ISIL — The Islamic State in the Levant also sometimes called IS or ISIS — they have the ability to move in and around countries but do not have a uniformed military, the general said.
“They can disappear, put on civilian attire and blend into places like Lebanon and other countries. They can recruit and deceive some of our closest allies, like the United Kingdom. They’ve recruited in the United States and attacked in Canada,” he said.
Mega-city conflict areas
They are part of a complicated environment and such non-state groups along with continuing development of mega-urban areas, add to the complexity for the world and the United States, Ashley said.
The complexity of fighting in large mega-city areas was something armies of the past would generally bypass, he said.
“You would not get bogged down and fight in urban areas. You are going to bypass those kinds of areas. But now it’s going to be potentially in those regions we are going to have to fight,” the general said.
The Army’s intelligence community, as well as others in the country, have to look more closely at major urban centers as points of conflicts, Ashley said.
Such areas are breeding grounds for discontent and power struggles which can ignite a larger conflict , he said.
“One of the things we are doing right now is taking a good hard look, from an intelligence standpoint, of what is tied into something like that” and it will be something discussed at the special conference, he said.
Also involved is what kind of training is needed or has to change, just not in the Military Intelligence Corps but all the Army’s specialities for in the developing world of international complexities, all branches and all military services have to work together, Ashley said, adding America’s allies have to be brought into the same circle.
“We need the support regional allies and make sure we are expeditionary in our support, “ he said.
As things mature and change over the next couple of decades, decisions have to be made on how to use technology to react to mega-urban problems and that could entail using smaller, hoovering type unmanned aerial systems to monitor trouble spots within a large urban areas, the general said.
At the same time what has to be accepted is a potential enemy will have abilities as well and could impact and defeat America’s systems, he said.
“The enemy will have technologies, too, and will be able to disrupt and take down our systems,” Ashley said.
As complicated becomes complex, changes will be needed, he said.
The nation is war-weary, but to ensure no enemy enters into a comfort zone thinking they can not only challenge America, but win, that’s why the new Army concept has to be put in place and it requires the human element, the general said.
The decision-makers will have multiple sources when it comes to making a decision, “it just can’t be one,” he said.
While technology is an important tool, decision making will be done by humans, not by an “artificial intelligence system,” Ashley emphasized.
Somebody needs to tell Ashley that there’s a major foreign hostile invasion going on right outside the conference room window there in Sierra Vista.
Maybe he and his buddies could think about what they’re going to do about that, or let the rest of us know why we’re sending cash to him.
That General should go for a run. Then, it will all become clear to him.
Vlad Putin annexing sovereign territory and shooting down civilian airlines? Nah,just an unfortunate misunderstanding.The Chinese,who are claiming sovereignty over the *entire* South China Sea? Nah,we just need more constructive dialog.But damn those punks who are calling for reduced government spending and enforcement of immigration laws that have been on the books for 150 years!
it’s all OK ... we have our own modern day code talkers ... English ... the enemie won’t understand a thing.
More waste of defense dollars. The military isn’t allowed to attack the enemy, so they have to try to circumnavigate the political winds to try to attack someone.
I was wondering if the headline was typo or it was written by a pakistani ESL student.
CC
“The enemy will have technologies, too, and will be able to disrupt and take down our systems,”
Right... and all we’ll have is a bunch of ‘guys’ in their tents fighting over a bottle of nail polish and women in fatigues whining about someone with better skills and experience who got rank ahead of them ... JUST because he was a male.
Enemie?
My name is Peggy.
Indeed, identification of enemies and their strategies was always one of Marxist language in laws that undermine the US defense posture. Obama their commander in chief has been challenged by cops nation wide, but the military rank is still not challenging him.
Time for a Face Palm...
Looks like Sandy missed an ‘s’ when he copied the title! We do that ever’ so often. And sometimes, our headline editor does that! I had to check the article at the link to make sure.
As for the content of the article? Well, it was written by Bill Hess, our local Senior Military Correspondent. How does one politely say that a journalist could be better at reporting on his specialty topic?
Hello, Peggy!
CC
The complexity of fighting in large mega-city areas was something armies of the past would generally bypass, he said.
“You would not get bogged down and fight in urban areas. You are going to bypass those kinds of areas. But now it’s going to be potentially in those regions we are going to have to fight,” the general said.
The Army’s intelligence community, as well as others in the country, have to look more closely at major urban centers as points of conflicts, Ashley said.
Such areas are breeding grounds for discontent and power struggles which can ignite a larger conflict , he said.
Perhaps they need to re-look at Siege warfare through the ages.
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