Posted on 12/03/2014 4:34:47 AM PST by maggief
Jeb Bush is steeling for a fight with the GOP’s conservative base, signaling he will not bend from his centrist positions on immigration and Common Core education standards in 2016 — even if it costs him support with grassroots conservatives.
In what could be read as a swipe at 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, Bush told a Washington audience this week that “no one really knows” if a presidential candidate can survive the primaries without sacrificing his core principles because “it hasn’t been tried recently.”
The former governor of Florida also told the CEO Council forum sponsored by The Wall Street Journal that candidates have to be prepared to “lose the primary to win the general.” Supporters say the comments show that if he enters the 2016 race, Bush will run a very different kind of campaign than recent GOP standard-bearers.
“His comments ... certainly answer whether he’s his own man,” one member of Bush’s inner circle told The Hill. “He’ll do this on his own terms or not at all.”
The source said Bush believes he can win by sticking to more centrist positions that could be popular in a general election, where the GOP nominee could face a formidable candidate in Hillary Clinton.
“The question is whether you can assemble a coalition of serious-minded centrist voters,” the Bush source said. “If he thinks it can be done, he’ll do it how he sees fit.”
The past two GOP nominees, Romney and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), had to downplay their past support for healthcare and immigration reform, respectively, just to win the primary battle. By then, they’d moved so far to the right that it hurt them in the general election, say Bush supporters.
Bush’s support for Common Core and immigration reform could both be problems in the GOP primaries.
The former Florida governor has made his support for Common Core standards the centerpiece of his work since leaving office, but one Republican strategist joked that GOP voters would rather have cannibals look after their children than submit to Common Core standards for them.
Bush drew conservative ire earlier this year for saying people illegally crossing the border for the sake of their children “broke the law, but it’s not a felony. It’s an act of love.”
Strategists interviewed by The Hill raised doubts about whether Bush could really avoid modifying at least his public statements in the rough-and-tumble GOP primary.
“Nobody gets a free pass in the Republican primary,” said Ryan Williams, a former Romney spokesman.
One strategist said “chastising conservatives for being too conservative in a conservative primary process” wouldn’t get him anywhere.
“History is littered with people who think rules of the primary don’t apply to them,” said Rick Wilson, a Florida-based GOP strategist.
Bush’s remarks underscored for some the view that he can’t stomach the political games a candidate has to play in the run-up to the general election.
He’s “shown a great deal of reluctance to embrace the more traditional campaign model where you go out and preach to Republican primary voters about why you’re the best fit,” said one strategist.
Others wonder whether he’s more comfortable in the environs of a think tank than on the campaign trail, saying he doesn’t have the “fire in his belly” to involve himself in a ruthless national campaign.
“He’s running for president of the United States, not president of the American Enterprise Institute,” one Republican said. “This is not a job for just a policymaker, people don’t make their sole judgments about a candidates based on the policy question.”
Bush’s confidant disagrees, saying people forget all too quickly the work he put in to rise to governor in a purple state where he burnished a resume that’s nearly universally admired by Republicans.
“Anybody that followed his campaign in Florida would conclude that he’s very comfortable with retail politics and he’s comfortable in a lot of communities where some conservatives have been afraid to go, with young voters, Hispanic voters, and working-class voters,” the source said.
Many Republicans privately admit they may need to embrace some type of reform to win a growing Hispanic population in a presidential year.
“You get the sense that he’s exasperated with the party to some extent,” one Republican said of Bush. “He has strong feelings on immigration and education that he gets attacked from Republicans for. When he last ran there wasn’t a Tea Party contingent to get on your case. It’s a whole different world now. If he wants to he can do it — he’ll raise money and has the gravitas, but running is a humbling experience, not a coronation.”
Still, strategists say Bush’s presence looms so large over the rest of the field that he can likely get away with things that would bury lesser candidates. Bush has a tight enough grip on the corporate donor base right now, and that could buy him time if he suffers losses in the early stages of the primaries.
He’s also viewed as one of the few candidates with the authority to match Clinton, the likely Democratic candidate. Republicans cheer the fact that he’s one of the few to lay out his policy positions at such an early point, even as other candidates — Clinton included — have hedged away from taking controversial stances.
“He’s someone Republicans look at and see a winner,” Williams said. “He’s won two competitive races, proven to be a big thinker in the party, and he could beat Hillary, so he generates a lot of enthusiasm.”
Bush had previously said he’d make a decision by the end of the year, but bought himself a little wiggle room on Monday, saying he’d decide “in short order” at some point “not that far out into the future.”
“Anyone close to him that says they know what he’ll do doesn’t really know,” the source close to Bush said. “I think it will be the still of the night and he’ll feel he’s either ready to go or it’s not his moment.”
He should just run as a democtrat and his base wouldn’t be such a problem.
Brilliant strategery...
"Conservative" base? WHAT conservative base?
Conservatives have been told to sit in the back of the classroom with the safety scissors and glitter.
I know. I don’t know why they bother to pretend there is an “opposition” party, when they don’t oppose much that the rats support. Can’t wait to see if he goes full Cochran on conservatives, calling us racists, pandering to minorities, etc.
He’ll lose. I’ll tell Jeb right now if he thinks he can win a GOP primary without faking being a conservative he might as well stay home.
After all, a lot of the other candidates don’t intend to commit political suicide. The big mystery is why Jeb wants to self-immolate his presidential ambitions.
I am about as loyal a Republican as they come. I even held my nose and voted for McCain. But I will stay NOT vote for Jeb, period. The party needs to understand this, because I know I’m not alone.
What are you talking about? He is the King of Rino’s. Mitt had 4 million stay home and not vote. Bush the stupid will have 8 million voters stay home and not vote.
It’s really not that much of a mystery. Jeb feels cheated by W. In his mind, he was supposed to be President—and might have been had he won his first Governor’s race. He might even have been a better President than W, but life ain’t always fair.
Of all the Bushs,Jeb is the most arrogant.
I’ll put 50/50 odds on Jeb winning the primary if he runs. The only one who could confidently beat him is Rand Paul. I hope another Governor, like Walker, runs though. I am not looking forward to electing another Senator as POTUS.
He assumes it will be a coronation.
And he assumes Hillary will run.
Both of them are questionable. Hillary’s inevitability is not guaranteed.
Neither is Jeb’s.
This works to our advantage, as he won't disguise himself in the primaries. With Christie also running and siphoning RINO votes, this is the best chance that conservatives have had to win the Republican primary since Reagan.
Yeah, I’d really love to know how Jeb Bush is any different from Hillary or the rest of the Democrats. Oh, I know! He’s a more competent, big government guy than the Democrats. Like his brother, he’ll make government much larger, but he’ll do it efficiently...
PUKE!
If conservatives can unite around Ted Cruz early, we’d get a conservative GOP nominee.
If not, the party will be stuck with another RINO loser headed to inevitable defeat in November.
Because the Bushes are true believers...in centrist moderation.
Pissing off your core voters is always a recipe for success in Rove-world.
Another compassionate conservative.
George W. spent so much like a drunken sailor he ruined the GOP brand.
Centrist coalition, my footsie.
NO WAY EL HEFFE
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