I don't think he's smart at all. He seems to be the sort of school yard bully who turns things to his personal advantage, then moves on. I'm not sure he cares about the mess he leaves behind.
I think he may still be arrogant enough to think he can manage things. But I admit there's plenty of evidence in favor of your position. Either way, I believe his ultimate goal has always been power and prestige, and what he could "accomplish" with it for anybody else was a very distant second.