Republicans have to win FL, OH, CO and NV to win - all states Obama carried in 2012.
PA is not winnable because of Philly. So it leaves those four states plus VA which nowadays is very difficult to win because its flipped from Red to Purple.
The path is there but its easier for a Democrat than a Republican in Purple states due to changing demographics.
As it stands the GOP is at a disadvantage and has to run the boards to win the White House.
Its the political reality come 2016.
That’s what I’m thinking. If Kerry (the Democrat version of Bob Dole) can win 246EVs after 9/11, I’m guessing that almost any Democrat nominee can win those states. (I’d say keep an eye on Michigan, but suspect that Clinton would do a few points better among white voters than Hussein did.)
I don’t trust the direction Virginia is going. The Dems had no GOTV machine and still won during this dramatic wave year, and the suburbs outside of D.C. are only going to get more populated (including more illegals and lots more fraud). And NM seems gone.
This all adds-up to the Democrat needing to win only one more state.. Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada - any one would do the trick.
If the GOP is considering splitting electoral votes in Michigan and Wisconsin, I’d say do it. It would give them a tiny bit more breathing room against the Democrat in ‘16.
And I’d also prioritize passage of more voter ID laws. I’m convinced that there are states in the “blue wall” that are built on illegal voters.