VOTER TURNOUT
Posted on 11/06/2014 8:21:55 AM PST by SeekAndFind
With most of the results of the midterm elections now counted and confirmed (with a few notable exceptions in Alaska and Virginia), we can now take a look at the exit polls and see what they actually mean. Before and during the election, plenty of speculation arose as to the composition of the turnout and which demographics may have contributed more to Republican success. The Washington Post looked at a comparison between 2012 and 2014 and discovered that all demographics shifted toward the GOP, especially Asian-American voters:
Based on preliminary exit poll data Tuesday night, we were able to say with some certainty how the 2014 electorate compared with 2012 and 2010. In short: It had more white, older voters — the sort of voters more likely to vote Republican.
As it turns out, the effect of that shift was multiplied by the fact that voters across the board were more likely to support Republicans than in past elections.
And when we say all, we mean all:
Support for Democrats was down slightly among black voters. In 2012, black voters backed the president by an 87-point margin; in 2010, black voters supported Democratic House candidates by 80 points, per exits. Last night, they backed Democrats by 79 points. Reduced support plus reduced turnout multiplies the effect for Republicans.
The electorate may have been slightly older and whiter than in 2012, but those changes aren’t as impactful as the overall shift to the GOP. Republicans picked up double-digit percentage gains in the 18-29YO demo and the Latino demo, and eight points among African-Americans. Asian-Americans moved significantly to the GOP over 2012, and even over 2010. Republicans even improved 10% among those earning under $50K, which should have Democrats very worried, and among women, independents, seniors, and so on.
However. Those gains came in comparison to a presidential cycle, and the differences in the natures of those cycles can account for at least some of those differences. The Post compares the exit poll results to 2010 in more of an apples-to-apples analysis, and the results should worry Republicans. The GOP made slight gains in 2014 over 201o among blacks, 18-29YOs, the middle class, and a large jump among Asian-Americans. They lost ground among women, Latinos, independents, seniors and 30-44YOs, and both working class and the wealthy. None of these declines went into double digits, but aside from the income demos, they all exceed the margin of error in the polling.
The good news for Republicans in 2016 is that Barack Obama won’t be on the ticket and will almost certainly decline to do much organizing on behalf of Democrats who want to follow him. The mission for the GOP in 2016 will be to consolidate the gains since 2012, certainly, but to reverse the declines from the previous midterm. Primary voters should look for candidates who can reach those voters and make sure that they come back into the big Republican tent, if they want to take the White House and keep the House and Senate.
“. . . voters across the board were more likely to support Republicans than in past elections.”
BOOM!!
Don’t mess this up, Republicans!
bttt
“especially Asian-American voters”
I think this is what happened in my neighborhood. I live in Cypress, Orange County Ca and we had an Asian running for state assembly Young Kim and I believe a lot of Asians showed up at the polls to vote for her. The results was the incumbent Quirk-Silva (D) was defeated.
Also part of this was the Congessional race with the dim Lowenthal the incumbant. There were no signs of ads in this race whatsoever. In fact I did not know who the Republican was until the ballots showed up. I don’t think either party put much money into either side. Well come Wednesday morning the Republican had pulled it out. Just Amazing. I think it was because of Kim running.
The problem for the Reps is that white women along with white men are becoming a smaller percentage of the voting population due to immigration and higher minority birthrates.
With 73% out of wedlock birthrates for blacks and 53% for Hispanics, the "single mom" is very dependent on Big Government. 42% of all births in this country are to single mothers. Is it any wonder that the party of Big Government benefits from the destruction of the American family?
True, but digging around in CNN’s exit polls yesterday, one of the things that stood out is that white women, the single largest demographic group in the country, voted Republican by a 56-42 margin.
They're already working on it: RNC chair: We won’t advance Obama’s agenda, but we’ll seek common ground
We might be settling into a norm after a couple of elections with a rock star at the top of the ticket.
I think the GOP has done a better job recruiting passionate, charismatic younger candidates at least for open seats. Due to the tea party movement and its emphasis on local involvement, the cream of the crop is working its way up through the ranks.
DEMS seem to be relying more on old warhorses or people closely allied with war horses. That’s not going to cut it with younger voters.
Thank-you for your report. This gives me cheer. As an American of Asian descent, I bristle, when ordinarily hard-working, law abiding fellow Asians, are such boners when it comes to political class.
I watch a lot of Korean dramas and they emphasize that civil servants would not be able to EAT, if it were not for the sacrifices of the citizens who sacrifice for them, so they better be ethical and work hard. This is how the responsibilities for the government offices should be framed.
Very interesting read!
Playing favorites in Sanford, Florida and Ferguson, Missouri appears to have hurt him with all other groups.
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