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ANALYSIS: How the Republican Wave Happened
National Review ^ | 11/5/2014 | John McLaughlin

Posted on 11/05/2014 10:00:34 AM PST by SeekAndFind

As of just after midnight Tuesday night, Republicans had already gained a net seven Senate seats and control of the chamber, with Virginia likely going to a recount, Alaska pending, and a probable runoff win in Louisiana. Already it seems that they’ve gained at least a net of twelve House seats.

Back in May, we felt there could be a Midterm Tsunami. In August we again speculated about it. But how did Republicans pull it off?

Our last national poll, in October, showed that the president had significant disapproval – 56 percent of Americans disapproving of the job he’s doing — which had the potential to drive the election to the Republicans.

Although the Republicans led the generic ballot for Congress at the time by a point, 42–41, among very likely voters it was 46–41, and the undecideds for Congress disapproved of the president by 64 percent. In the last two weeks of October, it appears, these voters nationalized the race, and we finally saw the tsunami.

In the national exit polls from this election day, the president’s disapproval was similar to our poll — approve 44 percent, disapprove 54 percent.

Among the 44 percent who approved of the job the president was doing, Democrats led 88–11. But among the 54 percent who disapproved of the job the president was doing, Republicans led 82–16. The Republican strategy to nationalize congressional races worked.

What didn’t work? The president’s and Democrats’ strategy to run against Congress. Clearly Congress is less popular than the White House: Only 20 percent in exit polls approved of the job that Congress was doing, and 78 percent disapproved.

But those who disapproved of Congress voted Republican 51–47, while those who approved of Congress voted Democratic 54–45. The Democrats, in other words, got saddled with the bad job people thought Congress was doing, in addition to the president’s poor performances.

The emergence of immigration and foreign policy as top issues also helped form the Tsunami. Economic issues were the top issue for almost half the voters (45 percent of the electorate). Those voters split evenly between Republicans and Democrats, 49–49. Next was health care, at 25 percent of voters, who favored the Democrats 60–38. Following that was immigration, at 14 percent, voters who went Republican 73–25. Finally, 13 percent cited foreign policy as their top issue, and they preferred Republicans 55–43.

The Tsunami of events and Democratic failure have washed the Republicans into office. Now they have to clean up the mess.

— John McLaughlin is a Republican strategist and a partner in the national polling firm McLaughlin & Associates.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2014; elections; wave

1 posted on 11/05/2014 10:00:34 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

The whole truth is we hate the joker and his clown Harry Reid.It just shows how much we despise him and his democrat criminals.and that is the whole truth..


2 posted on 11/05/2014 10:04:43 AM PST by PLD
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To: SeekAndFind
Don't make it harder than it was. Americans voted to:


3 posted on 11/05/2014 10:04:50 AM PST by bigbob (The best way to get a bad law repealed is to enforce it strictly. Abraham Lincoln)
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To: SeekAndFind
I think a lot of people went to the voting booth to register their protest with Obola and the democrats. I voted for Foley for governor, even though I didn't like him as a candidate. Let's hope that the republicans find a set of balls for McConnell and Boner.
4 posted on 11/05/2014 10:07:25 AM PST by peeps36 (Save The Tortoise And Kill The People)
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To: SeekAndFind

If you like your GOP, you can keep your Pubbies. Period.


5 posted on 11/05/2014 10:08:36 AM PST by 353FMG
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To: SeekAndFind

No mention of a Republican Agenda.


6 posted on 11/05/2014 10:08:47 AM PST by Uncle Miltie (I'M WITH CRUZ!)
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To: SeekAndFind

As usual, the wrong people were polled. :)


7 posted on 11/05/2014 10:12:08 AM PST by SMARTY ("When you blame others, you give up your power to change." Robert Anthony)
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To: Uncle Miltie
No mention of a Republican Agenda

Democrat-Socialists have demonstrated clearly by their actions they don't work off an agenda ... they work totally off their emotions, saying and acting out whatever pops into their tiny brains without a shred of consideration.

8 posted on 11/05/2014 10:12:21 AM PST by glennaro
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To: SeekAndFind

I think this had something to do with it:

100% of Newly Elected GOP Senators Campaigned on Repealing Obamacare
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/ali-meyer/100-newly-elected-gop-senators-campaigned-repealing-obamacare

When you see yourself and friends and neighbors losing their jobs or have your hours cut back. When you see empty storefronts all over. You do not vote for democrats and more obamacare.

The utter contempt the democrats are showing people comes thru.


9 posted on 11/05/2014 10:14:01 AM PST by minnesota_bound
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To: Uncle Miltie

There wasn’t one.


10 posted on 11/05/2014 10:14:04 AM PST by bigbob (The best way to get a bad law repealed is to enforce it strictly. Abraham Lincoln)
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To: SeekAndFind

“The Tsunami of events and Democratic failure have washed the Republicans into office. Now they have to clean up the mess.”

This has been the case time after time in my 50+ years on this planet.

Enough, already! Clean it up, DESTROY the opposition, and bring America back to her Superpower Glory Days! How REFRESHING it will be to have our Enemies FEAR us and our Allies TRUST us once again! :)


11 posted on 11/05/2014 10:15:16 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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To: SeekAndFind
The wave happened because the people tried to tell the psuedo-intelectual, egomaniacs in washington that we were not happy with obama, the progressive agenda and the way the country was going - they ignored us - thus the TITAL wave. Progressives need to go back in their respective holes. Americans don't want you or your race baiting president.
12 posted on 11/05/2014 10:23:42 AM PST by Bitsy
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To: SeekAndFind
What didn’t work? The president’s and Democrats’ strategy to run against Congress. Clearly Congress is less popular than the White House: Only 20 percent in exit polls approved of the job that Congress was doing, and 78 percent disapproved.

But those who disapproved of Congress voted Republican 51–47, while those who approved of Congress voted Democratic 54–45. The Democrats, in other words, got saddled with the bad job people thought Congress was doing, in addition to the president’s poor performances.

Can't be because the people who disapproved of congress actually disapproved of Democrats in the senate, can it? It's amazing the myopia the media has about their own internal bias. Every media story from every outlet today has missed this crucial point. People were mad at the senate and GOP leaderships, but they were mad at the GOP because they weren't doing enough and mad at the Senate because they were blocking all the GOP legislation. Why can't these both be true?

Why did they ask the question about generic "congress" and not about the house and the senate? Because they wanted to appear the people hated the GOP as much as they hate the Dem leadership. And then they ended up fooling themselves because of their own biases, and now can't interpret what happened properly because of it.

13 posted on 11/05/2014 10:41:39 AM PST by The Enlightener
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Republicans gave them enough rope to hang themselves. They even brought their own tree, tied their own noose.


14 posted on 11/05/2014 12:07:12 PM PST by USCG SimTech (Honored to serve since '71)
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To: SeekAndFind

The erosion in real income, over the past six years was felt by all. Real income should be back to 2007 levels and it is not.

Voters voted accordingly.

Plus ebola, ISIS, IRS stonewalling, veteran care wait lists....


15 posted on 11/05/2014 12:48:31 PM PST by cicero2k
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