There is another factor: ISIL dumping what amounts to captured crude on the black market for rumored prices around $40/bbl. They don’t have any skin in that game, it cost them nothing, but it is rumored to be bringing them around a million dollars a day. Maybe the Saudis will go shoot up their trucks?
I don’t see their work doing more than raising overall prices.
Production is down in the area. Selling stolen TV’s in the back alley does not lower prices inside the stores.