I’d say that GOP poll in IA-03 became more believable when that RAT operative leaked that Braley was behind in all four congressional districts. Basically, since IA-03 is almost exactly as Republican as the state as a whole, I think that Ernst winning statewide by 5% will give us enough of a cushion for Young to pull it out. In AR-02, though, my fear is that, since the district is like 5% less Republican than the state as a whole (i.e., a 10% swing), Cotton and Hutchison winning by less than 10% may not give Hill enough of a cushion; I hope I’m wrong, though.
As for NY-11, yeah, the RAT is from Brooklyn, not Staten Island, but he’s got an Italian name, and Grimm has been branded a crook for months now, so unfortunately I think that Grimm will fall short. I hope that I’m wrong, of course, and even if I’m not we’ll win it back in 2016 with Andrew Lanza or some other Italian-American Staten Islander.
And, yeah, the RATs prefer to run scions of 1970s Democrat politicians, ex-RINOs, and military vets with curiously liberal views.
Grimm is insufficiently conservative, so it might actually be better in the long run if he lost, but I can’t hope for any rat victory. I’d like Lanza to be the 2016 nominee regardless.