I sent in my predictions for an election contest today, and reluctantly had to pick Hays over Hill in AR-02. The AR-02 is the least Republican of the state’s four CDs (like 54% for Romney), it’s an open-seat race, Hays has name ID in Little Rock, Hill barely won his primary and easily can be depicted as a rich guy who’s trying to buy the seat, and while I think that both Cotton and Hutchison will win statewide by 5%-8%, they won’t have a big margin (if any) in the AR-02.
But in the last minute I decided to pick Young over Appell in IA-03, making the AR-02 one of only three GOP-held House districts that I have falling to the RATs (the open CA-41 that we won in a fluke last time and Grimm’s NY-13 being the others). The RATs picked up four GOP-held House seats in 1994 (all four of which opened up when the incumbent sought higher office—three of them (Santorum of PA, Grams of MN and Snowe of ME) were elected to the Senate in GOP pickups, while the fourth (Machtley of RI) lost the gubernatorial primary but the guy who beat him (Almond) picked up the governorship), and they picked up three GOP-held House seats in 2010 (the LA-02 and HI-01 that we had won under weird circumstances and the DE at-large seat that Castle gave up and that was doomed the moment that COD won the Senate primary).
I mentioned HI-01, which was one of the three House seats that the GOP lost in 2010; Djou lost the seat in 2010 (after having won with under 40% earlier in the year in a special election in which two RATs split the liberal vote)and lost the rematch in 2012, but I picked him to win in an upset this year. The way I see it, it’s an open seat, the RAT isn’t too formidable, even HI has Obama fatigue, and the RAT gubernatorial candidate won’t get over 45% (although, unfortunately, I still think that the RAT will beat Aiona for the governorship, with Hannemann taking like 12%).
I’ve also read worrying news about Steve Southerland in FL-2. Appears he’s in a tough race with former Senator Bob Graham’s daughter. The national GOP also seems a bit concerned about Lee Terry in NE-2.
Believing that GOP poll now?
I'll go out on a limb and say French gets over the hill in Arkansas. And that Mike Grimm will as well over a Brooklyn rat, making CA-31 the only seat we lose, somewhat mirroring 1948, when 2 open rat seats in Cali were the only GOP pickups that year.
Those two will be close (particularly NE-02), but I think that we’ll hold on. Southerland has a fairly low ceiling in FL-02, but any Democrat (even Graham’s daughter, the Michelle Nunn of North Florida) has an even lower ceiling there. FL-02 has a very polarized electorate.
I'll say a good year prevents those Republican-leaning seats from going full retard. Hmm, democrats sure love running Ex-RINOs (In Nebraska-2) and scions of famous rat families, double barf.
Honolulu Star Advertiser Poll
Charles Djou (R) 47%, Mark Takai (D) 47%